Europe Data Response France Bus. Conf. (Mar.) & German Cons. Conf. (Apr.) The largest-ever fall in French business confidence in March leaves the survey pointing to a severe slump in activity at the end of Q1. But the reality is almost certainly much worse than this. 26th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo (Mar.) The Ifo survey gives a similar message to the PMI: the German economy is collapsing, with services bearing the brunt. And the situation is likely to get worse in April. 25th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Germany opens the fiscal taps Germany’s supplementary budget for nearly 5% of GDP sets an example that other euro-zone countries are likely to follow. However, we suspect that the costs will end up being much higher even than this... 23rd March 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Mar.) March’s German Ifo survey was very downbeat, but it may even understate the decline in business sentiment. While the ECB’s expansion of QE is a positive step towards containing the fallout from the... 19th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response ZEW Survey (Mar.) The sharp drops in the ZEW measures of German and euro-zone investor sentiment in March came as no surprise, and point to sharp falls in GDP. Things are likely to get much worse in Q2, when we expect... 17th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Jan.) The rise in German industrial production in January provides no relief for policymakers, who should now be braced for a new slump as Covid-19 spreads throughout Europe. Industrial output is likely to... 9th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German GDP Q4 2019 (Second Estimate) After flat-lining in Q4 last year, we suspect that the German economy will not grow in the first half of this year either, even if the effects of the coronavirus are contained. 25th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Feb.) The small increase in the Ifo Business Climate Index in February will be a relief for those braced for a big hit from the coronavirus. However, the index is still below its level in December and... 24th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German GDP, Euro-zone GDP (2nd est.) & Emp. (Q4) Given that the German economy stagnated in Q4 last year it will have come as a relief that GDP growth for the euro-zone as a whole was not revised down from +0.1% q/q. We think that Germany will... 14th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update German office rents to hold up despite boost to supply Softer office occupier demand is expected to weigh on German prime office rents this year. But we still think that rents can grow at a decent pace because, even though office supply is expected to... 14th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Dec.) The 3.5% slump in industrial production in December flies in the face of the widely-held view that Germany’s manufacturing sector was on the mend at the end of last year. And even before the... 7th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German HICP (Jan.) The increase in Germany’s headline HICP inflation rate to 1.6% in January was a little smaller than most had expected and was driven by higher energy inflation. Underlying inflation seems to have... 30th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook ECB to keep pushing on a string We expect economic growth to remain sluggish this year as external demand picks up only slowly and domestic demand softens. Employment growth is slowing, which will cause household incomes and... 21st January 2020 · 30 mins read
Europe Data Response German GDP (2019) News that the German economy expanded by 0.6% last year, down from 1.5% in 2018, suggests that it narrowly avoided another contraction in Q4. Nonetheless, we think that GDP is unlikely to expand... 15th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Nov.) While the increase in industrial production in November comes as a bit of a relief, it merely reversed the decline in the previous month and still means that output is likely to have fallen again in... 9th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Dec.) December’s Ifo Business Climate Index was a bit better than expected, but it still suggests that the German economy is struggling to grow. We expect GDP growth to remain very weak at the start of next... 18th December 2019 · 2 mins read
