Europe Commercial Property Outlook Sector fortunes to shift While the Delta variant has slowed economic activity in other parts of the world, this has not yet been the case in the euro-zone, and we are cautiously optimistic that the bloc will continue to grow... 16th September 2021 · 31 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly A look ahead to December’s ECB meeting Following yesterday’s comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde, the Bank looks set to make crucial decisions about the future of QE at its December meeting. We suspect that it will end its net... 10th September 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (July) The small increase in German industrial production in July merely reversed the fall in June, and left output well below normal. While the rest of the economy is now close to a full recovery, supply... 7th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Inflation to rise further, but then fall Inflation will rise further from the 3% level reached in August in the coming months, but we are confident that it will drop back sharply next year, as most measures of underlying inflation and wage... 3rd September 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Inflation & the outlook for E-Z & US Yields While we think that 10-year government bond yields in both the US and the euro-zone will rise over the next few years, we expect increases in yields to be much smaller in the euro-zone given the... 31st August 2021 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Business surveys point to continued recovery The business surveys for August published this week provided some reassurance that the euro-zone economy is continuing to grow at a decent pace. And the decline in the forward-looking components is... 27th August 2021 · 8 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (August) The second successive decline in the Ifo Business Climate Index in August provides further evidence that Germany’s recovery is losing some momentum, partly due to supply chain difficulties in the... 25th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Germany’s recovery taking longer than expected Data published today show that the weakness in German GDP in Q2 was due to the low level of household spending. Consumption should increase sharply in Q3. But with manufacturers struggling, the... 24th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update German election result in the balance After a sharp rise in support for the SDP the election result looks set to be very close. Whatever the outcome, economic policy will not change very much, but fiscal policy may be slightly less... 24th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Aug.) August’s PMIs suggest that growth slowed only slightly despite persistent supply problems and activity approaching more normal levels. They also imply that price pressures are no longer intensifying... 23rd August 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Delta variant not yet putting brakes on recovery The timeliest data show little evidence that concerns about the Delta variant are causing economic activity to fall outright. But with output getting closer to normal levels and the virus situation... 20th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Tentative signs of a turning point for property All-property capital values rose for the third consecutive quarter in Q2, leaving them less than 1% below their pre-virus level. The improvement was driven by a decline in all-property yields, though... 18th August 2021 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly German election getting complicated The latest opinion polls suggest that Germany’s election, on 26 th September, will be a close-run affair, with many coalition governments still potentially feasible. Whether or not the Greens are part... 13th August 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Industry holds back otherwise strong recovery This week provided yet more good news on the euro-zone, with case numbers falling consistently in some countries, vaccine rollouts on track, and both the survey and official data suggesting that the... 6th August 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics German Industrial Production (June) The further decline in German industrial output in June, to 6.8% below its pre-pandemic level, underlines that the problems in the auto sector will hold back an otherwise strong economic recovery. It... 6th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Germany Flash Inflation (July) The increase in German inflation to nearly 4% on the CPI measure was partly due to last year’s VAT cut and partly due to rising energy and food inflation, all of which should prove short-lived... 29th July 2021 · 3 mins read
