Europe Economics Update Q1 wage data a concern for the ECB We don’t think the pick-up in euro-zone negotiated wage growth in Q1 will stop the ECB from cutting interest rates in June. But the continued strength of pay pressures reduces the chance of the ECB... 23rd May 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q2 2024) Smaller property yield rises and still-solid rental growth left all-property capital values little changed in Q1, a notable improvement on the sharp falls seen since mid-2022. However, we think... 22nd May 2024 · 0 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (May 2024) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economic growth strengthened across Emerging Europe in Q1, and leading indicators suggest... 22nd May 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Construction Output (March 2024) Euro-zone construction output rose slightly in March but we think the sector will struggle over the coming months. 21st May 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update An early look at Germany’s next general election The next German federal election will be crucial in determining how Germany will respond to its structural economic challenges. This Update answers some key questions on what to expect from the... 20th May 2024 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s reshuffle & China ties, lithium-ion batteries The political reshuffle in Russia this week, in which Putin replaced the defence minister and gave more responsibility to a number of ministers in charge of the economy, suggests a greater focus on... 17th May 2024 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly US-China tariffs raise stakes for EU This week’s decision by the US government to hike tariffs on Chinese EVs to 100% may have been largely political and symbolic but it raises the stakes for Europe, which will complete its own... 17th May 2024 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone services inflation should keep falling There will be some upward pressure on services inflation in the coming months from tourism-related items and the pass-through of higher oil prices. But we think that this will be more than offset by... 17th May 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q2 2024) Property valuations were little changed in Q1 2024, failing to build upon the considerable improvement in 2023. Property yields increased further, but the smaller rise failed to offset gains in... 16th May 2024 · 0 mins read
Global Economics Update What the latest US tariffs mean for the global economy We held an online Drop-In session today to discuss the Biden administration’s new tariffs on goods from China. This Update answers several of the questions that we received about the direct effects of... 15th May 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Consensus agree prime office rental growth to slow Forecasts for prime office rental growth have generally proven too pessimistic over the past couple of years, but there is again broad agreement that a slowdown is on the way this year. However, we... 15th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone GDP (Q1, 2nd est.), Employment and Industrial Production 15th May 2024 · 2 mins read
Event Europe Drop-In: The start of the ECB rate cut cycle? 6th June 2024, 3:00PM BST We think the ECB’s June meeting will mark the start of a more aggressive rate cutting cycle than markets are currently pricing.
Event Drop-In: US and Europe to raise China tariffs – A new phase in global fracturing? 15th May 2024, 9:00AM BST After weeks of rising tensions around the question of Chinese industrial overcapacity, the Biden administration has announced a new raft of tariffs on goods from China.
