Europe Economics Update Additional headwind from tighter fiscal policy Lower energy prices and the reinstatement of the EU’s fiscal rules will contribute to lower budget deficits in the euro-zone next year. Together with tighter monetary policy, this will help to dampen... 19th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone probably contracted again in Q2 The latest data suggest that the euro-zone remained in recession in Q2. We think that the economy will continue to contract in the second half of the year as the impact of tighter monetary policy... 19th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Event Drop-In: The Fed and ECB’s July meetings – and a lookahead to the BoE 1690466400 Rate hikes from the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank at their July meetings look like done deals – it’s the messaging accompanying those decisions that may prove key to what the banks deci
Europe Economics Weekly Tighter policy on the cards, Germany’s China Strategy This week brought another raft of weak data on the euro-zone economy. And further struggles lie ahead, with the minutes of the June ECB meeting and a statement released by EU finance ministers... 14th July 2023 · 6 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (May) Euro-zone industrial production edged up in May but it probably still declined over Q2 as a whole and we think further weakness is ahead. 13th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Different inflation pictures, different bond market outcomes? Bigger falls in US core inflation than in the euro-zone or UK might mean government bond yields decline a bit more quickly in the US over the rest of this year, but ultimately we expect yields to fall... 12th July 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Election uncertainty in Spain The upcoming election in Spain may result in a change of government, but it is unlikely to change the country’s short-term economic fortunes. Low inflation and a rebound in tourism will help GDP... 11th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Two intriguing developments within the latest rout in bonds There were two intriguing developments in bond markets last week, as the 10-year Treasury yield surged above 4% to its highest level since March. The first was a similar-sized increase in the 10-year... 10th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Rising vacancy to drag on Brussels office rent growth After a lacklustre 2022, the Brussels prime office market has had a brighter start to 2023, as rent growth accelerated while it slowed elsewhere in the euro-zone. But with a cooling jobs market set to... 10th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update When would the Bundesbank need recapitalising? There are circumstances in which the Bundesbank’s losses over the next few years could require it to be recapitalised by the German government. However, we think these are unlikely to occur and the... 10th July 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (July 2023) This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use... 7th July 2023 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone recession likely to have continued in Q2 The activity data published this week are consistent with our view that the euro-zone economy contracted again in Q2. Next week, the ECB will publish the account of June’s meeting which is likely to... 7th July 2023 · 9 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (May 2023) German industrial production fell in May and is likely to have declined in Q2. We think industry will continue to struggle over the rest of this year. 7th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (May 2023) Euro-zone retail sales remained very weak in May and point to household consumption having fallen in Q2. Further out, low consumer confidence and rising interest rates suggest that household... 6th July 2023 · 1 min read
Event CRE Drop-In: Office sector Armageddon – Who gets hit hardest? 1690383600 The meltdown in CRE that’s dominating headlines is a story centred on the office sector.
Europe Economics Focus Further falls in euro-zone house prices to come House prices in the euro-zone have fallen sharply and further declines seem quite likely. This will weigh on construction activity and household consumption, both of which are already weak, and... 5th July 2023 · 10 mins read
