Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (August) The small upside surprise to euro-zone headline inflation in August was entirely due to energy, while the core rate edged down. We don’t think these data will tip the balance of opinion at the ECB... 31st August 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Strong inflation may limit downside for EZ bond yields Stronger-than-expected inflation data from Germany and Spain today add to the uncertainty surrounding the near-term path of ECB policy. On balance, we think that the ECB will raise rates once more in... 30th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany and Spain HICP (August) August’s slightly higher-than-expected inflation rates in Germany and Spain mean euro-zone HICP inflation may not fall as far as we had anticipated (data due tomorrow) and marginally raise the chance... 30th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Tourist boost to Iberian retail rents has run its course A strong rebound in tourism has bolstered retail rents in Spain and Portugal over recent quarters. However, we think this boom has run its course. Alongside a weak domestic consumer outlook, this... 30th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response EC Survey (August) The decline in the euro-zone’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) in August leaves it consistent on past form with GDP stagnating at best in Q3. And while the survey suggests that hiring intentions... 30th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Metals Focus Steel prices unlikely to forge ahead Absent major fiscal stimulus in China, global steel demand growth will be weak in the next few months. Accordingly, we forecast price declines in major steel markets towards year-end. Only when... 29th August 2023 · 11 mins read
Capital Daily Relative outlook for US and EZ high yield spreads We expect the gap between high yield (HY) credit spreads in the euro-zone and the US to narrow over the rest of this year as spreads in both economies climb. 29th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Money and credit data show effects of tighter policy The effects of tighter monetary policy are very clear in the latest money and credit data, reinforcing our view that the euro-zone economy will perform worse than most analysts expect in the coming... 29th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Germany struggling but “sick man” is overdoing it Worries that Germany is becoming the “sick man of Europe” have resurfaced over the past few weeks. While we think the German economy is heading back into recession this seems too alarmist. In many... 25th August 2023 · 10 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany GDP (Q2) and Ifo (Aug.) The fourth successive monthly decline in the Ifo Business Climate Index in August, following the slump in the PMIs earlier this week, strongly suggests that the German economy will contract again in... 25th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update An end in sight to the German retail rout? The German retail market has been one of the weakest in Europe since the beginning of 2022 and rental performance so far in 2023 has been well below the euro-zone average. But, with consumer... 24th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Downturns to push the euro and sterling down further The weaker-than-expected PMI data from European economies is consistent with our view that the euro and sterling will fall further against the dollar over the next couple of months. 23rd August 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs raise recession risks again August’s flash PMIs support our view that both the euro-zone and UK will slip into recession in Q3 and imply that the US is now barely growing. And with output prices still easing gradually, the... 23rd August 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Rise in gas prices not yet a big inflation risk The increase in the spot and particularly futures prices of European natural gas in the past few weeks suggests that there is an upside risk to our forecast for euro-zone inflation next year. However... 23rd August 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (August 2023) August’s flash PMIs were worse than expected, particularly in Germany, and are consistent with our view that the euro-zone economy will contract in the third quarter and that underlying price... 23rd August 2023 · 2 mins read
Event Drop-In: The natural gas market in the European winter 1694008800 A mild winter 2022/23 helped Europe dodge a bullet of high gas prices.
