Capital Daily

Bund yields likely to fall despite today’s hawkish ECB

While euro-zone inflation data has recently surprised to the upside, which was reflected in the hawkish tone of today’s ECB meeting, we still think the 10-year Bund yield will fall faster than the 10...

6th June 2024 · 4 mins read

Europe Economics Update

ECB fires starting gun but rate cuts will be gradual

The ECB began its easing cycle today, as expected, but the accompanying guidance and forecasts suggest that it will proceed cautiously. We now think the Bank will cut interest rates by only a further...

6th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Tables turning in favour of southern European offices

Indications that take-up stabilised across many markets in Q1 were encouraging. However, looking ahead we think the prospects for occupier demand are better in southern European markets.

6th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Euro-zone Retail Sales (April 2024)

Retail sales ticked down in April we expect them to rise gradually from here.

6th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Economics Update

France rating downgrade won’t be the last

With the government debt-to-GDP ratio likely to trend up over the medium term, and the budget deficit set to stay above 3% of GDP, we suspect that France will be subject to further rating downgrades...

3rd June 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

ECB to cut rates; SNB to sell FX assets?

The key event next week will be Thursday’s ECB meeting when we think the Bank will cut the deposit rate from 4.0% to 3.75%. But strong services inflation in May and strong wage growth in Q1 may...

31st May 2024 · 7 mins read

ECB Watch

ECB to cut rates at 6th June meeting, then pause

Having agreed to do so at their last meeting, we think the ECB Governing Council will go ahead and cut the deposit rate by 25bp next week, to 3.75%. As the recent inflation data have been a bit higher...

31st May 2024 · 8 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Euro-zone HICP (May 2024)

May’s increases in headline and core inflation – and jump in services inflation to a seven-month high – won’t stop the ECB from cutting interest rates next week. But another reduction in July now...

31st May 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

EC Survey (May) and Unemployment (April 2024)

The EC business and consumer survey for May is consistent with weak growth in euro-zone GDP, while price pressures are still strong but are continuing to ease. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate ticked...

30th May 2024 · 2 mins read

Capital Daily

We think Bund yields will start falling before long

We expect the 10-year Bund yield to fall by the end of the year as the ECB loosens policy more than investors are currently discounting.

29th May 2024 · 4 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Rising distress points to further value falls in Germany

While German property yields stabilised in Q1, further indications of rising distress give us confidence in our view that property values there have not yet reached the bottom.

29th May 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Germany State CPI (May)

CPI inflation data published by the major German states this morning suggest that both German and euro-zone HICP inflation may come in a bit lower than expected and that though core inflation rose...

29th May 2024 · 2 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Why have the US and EZ downturns lagged the UK?

While the timing of the sharp hit to UK commercial real estate values owes much to the ill-fated “mini-Budget” of September 2022, we think the UK’s role in leading the valuation downgrades also owes...

28th May 2024 · 6 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

Further thoughts on the latest wage data

The wage growth data published this week were not good for the inflation outlook, but they weren’t as bad as they first appeared. Meanwhile, the latest news on economic activity has been encouraging...

24th May 2024 · 9 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Spain logistics rent growth upgrade, but Madrid to trail

Spanish industrial rent growth beat expectations in Q1 this year, outpacing rises elsewhere in the euro-zone. However, this was mainly due to Barcelona, where we have raised our prime rent forecast...

24th May 2024 · 3 mins read