ECB Watch Is the ECB about to turn? The ECB is likely to soften its tone markedly at this month’s press conference amid signs of a significant deterioration in economic activity. With inflation risks probably no longer deemed to be on... 2nd September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI & Unemployment (Jul./Aug.) The news that euro-zone core inflation remained very low in August while unemployment rose further in July should reduce any remaining inflation fears at the ECB, adding to expectations of possible... 1st September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Aug.) August’s weak EC business and consumer survey added to the evidence that the euro-zone recovery has gone into reverse, perhaps boosting expectations that the ECB’s recent interest rate hikes could... 31st August 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) Recent signs of growing stresses in the euro-zone banking sector support our view that credit growth will remain subdued at best and that household spending and investment will grind to a virtual halt... 27th August 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Euro-zone property investment market set to weaken Q2’s sharp slowdown in GDP growth in the euro-zone’s so-called “core” economies is a worrying sign that investor sentiment across the region as a whole could fall sharply in the near term. If that is... 24th August 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs & German ZEW Survey (Aug.) August’s first business and investor surveys suggest that activity in the euro-zone is stagnating at best. With Germany showing a particularly marked deterioration lately, the region’s strongest... 24th August 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Does Germany still want to save the euro? Germany’s reluctance or political inability to implement stronger measures to support the euro-zone’s periphery suggests that its appetite for the project might be fading. While euro-zone membership... 18th August 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Euro-zone GDP figures point to softening property investment market Now that it is clear that the economic weakness observed in the euro-zone’s peripheral economies over the past year or so is spreading to the region’s core, commercial property investors might begin... 17th August 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q2) Q2’s euro-zone GDP figures revealed that the recovery has slowed dramatically. With even the previously healthy core economies now barely expanding, we maintain our far below consensus forecast that... 17th August 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Prod. (Jun.) & French & Greek GDP (Q2) June’s euro-zone industrial production data and Q2’s French GDP figures provide further strong indications that economic growth in the region as a whole slowed sharply in Q2. 13th August 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Italy’s debt dynamics worsen Prior to the announcement of the second rescue package for Greece, we noted that anything other than a very decisive response by European policymakers could prompt Italy and Spain to be dragged deeper... 9th August 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Producer Prices (Jun.) The continued slowdown in producer price inflation, combined with July’s unexpected fall in headline consumer price inflation, supports our view that the ECB will probably keep interest rates on hold... 3rd August 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Jul.) July’s euro-zone flash consumer prices figures came as something of a pleasant surprise and provide some support for our view that the ECB may not raise interest rates again over the coming months. 30th July 2011 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB to remain in hawkish mode for now At August’s press conference, the ECB is likely to keep its options open over the likely near-term path of interest rates. But given the further decline in business and consumer sentiment and growing... 29th July 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Jul.) July’s fall in euro-zone economic sentiment adds to the evidence of a broad-based economic slowdown. The decline in the economy-wide Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI), from 105.1 to 103.2, was... 29th July 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) The latest ECB Bank lending survey suggests that conditions in the euro-zone banking sector remain far from normal, supporting our view that domestic demand in the region as a whole will struggle to... 29th July 2011 · 1 min read
