Europe Economics Update Fiscal policy won't cushion the euro-zone Recent calls (most notably from IMF head Dominique Strauss-Kahn) for governments to use fiscal policy to support their economies beg the question of whether the euro-zone might benefit from such... 29th January 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB to cut rates to 3.0% We argued back in December that expectations that the ECB would raise interest rates this year would prove to be wrong. With economic activity in the region continuing to cool and other central banks... 23rd January 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB hawkish for now, but next move will be down M. Trichet’s hawkish tone at today’s press conference confirmed that the ECB is unlikely to follow other major central banks in cutting interest rates in the near future. However, a further slowdown... 10th January 2008 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Hawkish stance to soften in H2 Concerns about the inflation outlook in the eurozone are likely to keep the ECB firmly in hawkish mood in the early months of 2008. But slowing activity, falling overseas interest rates and the... 3rd January 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How far will the ECB lag behind? The markets and most forecasters believe that the European Central Bank will sit on its hands and leave euro-zone interest rates unchanged throughout 2008 while the US Fed and UK MPC both loosen... 5th December 2007 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How far can the euro-zone de-couple from the US? The European and US economies have moved closely together over recent decades, with most major slowdowns in the US followed by an even deeper or more protracted downturn in Europe. But there are some... 3rd December 2007 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus What has the euro done for the euro-zone? The euro cannot be blamed for relatively weak economic growth in the euro-zone, or for the region’s difficulties competing in international markets. But neither has it brought the vast benefits that... 29th November 2007 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Core inflation dangers greater this time? Rising food and energy prices look set to prompt another period of high headline inflation in the euro-zone like that seen between 2004 and 2006. But with the economy operating closer to capacity, the... 15th November 2007 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is stronger euro-zone productivity growth here to stay? The evidence suggests that the recent pick-up in euro-zone productivity growth was probably a temporary reflection of the cyclical strength of the economy rather than a permanent or structural... 22nd October 2007 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Can euro-zone consumers take the baton? If US consumers have been the driving force behind the world economy over the last decade or so, then European consumers might perhaps be described as a sleeping giant. But the giant could be about to... 22nd May 2007 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus When will ECB rates no longer be "low"? The European Central Bank’s stance that euro-zone interest rates are still “low” suggests that it might have to raise them significantly further to contain inflation. But the existence of some spare... 20th February 2007 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Can the euro-zone investment boom continue? Recent strong increases in euro-zone investment have been at odds with the continued weakness of consumer spending. But positive conditions in the corporate sector suggest that firms have not over... 6th February 2007 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus What will close the inflation gap? The last time the headline and core rates of consumer price inflation in the euro-zone diverged as they have over the last two years, it was a sharp rise in core inflation which eventually closed the... 29th November 2006 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is the euro-zone labour market about to hit the buffers? Estimates of the sustainable rate of unemployment suggest that the euro-zone labour market could be about to hit capacity constraints. But we think that the labour market recovery has plenty further... 1st November 2006 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is the Euro-zone recovery sustainable? If our forecasts of a major slowdown in the US economy prove to be correct, then one crucial issue for the global economy is whether other parts of the world can compensate. With the euro-zone... 26th October 2006 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus The euro’s appreciation: who will suffer most? We expect the Netherlands, Ireland and Finland to feel the strongest impact on GDP growth from the euro’s appreciation. In France too, it seems possible that movements in the euro could stop the... 31st July 2006 · 1 min read
