Europe Economics Focus Euro’s strength won’t curb the ECB The recent appreciation of the euro exchange rate has led to suggestions that the European Central Bank can afford to take its finger off the interest rate trigger. After all, conventional indicators... 13th July 2006 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Euro-zone consumers finally ready to spend? For the first time in a number of years, the conditions are in place for a significant acceleration in the growth of consumer spending in the euro-zone. This should ensure that both GDP growth and... 29th March 2006 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Where will euro-zone rates peak? ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said little new in his testimony to the European parliament today. But whether the ECB begins to raise rates in December (as now seems likely) or early in 2006, there... 21st November 2005 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is the ECB keeping government bond yield spreads low? A number of commentators have argued that the ECB is inadvertently keeping euro-zone government bond yield spreads artificially low because of the way it provides liquidity to the banking system. In... 19th October 2005 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Will the ECB cut rates? The case for a cut in euro-zone interest rates is straightforward: the economic recovery has lost momentum and monetary policy is one of the few remaining levers available to stimulate growth. Indeed... 26th May 2005 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Can the euro-zone economy live with a stronger euro? 18th January 2005 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Will the ECB intervene to restrain the euro? The ECB has already started to express concern about the rising euro. This has led to increased speculation about when the ECB might intervene to resist further strengthening. However, we believe that... 10th November 2004 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus The impact of oil prices on euro-zone inflation The rise in oil prices to record highs makes for eye-catching headlines, but it exaggerates the impact on the euro-zone economy. In real terms, oil prices are still far lower than during the true ‘oil... 13th August 2004 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook The Chancellor's five-point plan for Britain (Q3 03) The Treasury’s assessment of the five economic tests to determine whether the UK should adopt the euro has had an unexpected benefit – five ideas for reform, admittedly not all new, to improve the... 27th June 2003 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus There’s life outside the euro Now that the UK has decided not to adopt the euro, attention will turn to the implications of this decision. Many studies in the last year or so have concluded that the UK has already missed out on a... 12th May 2003 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook The five tests for euro entry: pass or fail? (Q2 03) In a few months, the Treasury will complete its assessment of the five economic tests for UK adoption of the single currency. Should the tests be passed, a referendum could follow in the autumn and we... 30th March 2003 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Housing forms a major barrier to UK adoption of the euro Structural differences between the UK and continental European housing markets are a major barrier to Britain adopting the euro. Because of the large proportion of variable-rate mortgages in the UK... 26th July 2002 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Blair and the Euro – A Serious Case of Mission Creep? Today’s press is full of the idea that the Prime Minster is set to push ahead with plans for a euro referendum. This is so much at odds with our own assessment, notably in our last Quarterly Review... 3rd October 2001 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook To be in, or not to be in - that is the question - Prospects for euro entry (Q3 01) The euro is the main economic issue of the day. Both financial planners and economic policy-makers would be strongly affected if the pound were to join it and, accordingly, they are obliged to make an... 27th June 2001 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus The Mansion House Speech & the Euro Last night’s Mansion House Speech by Gordon Brown seems to have put paid to recent speculation of an early assessment of the five economic tests leading to a euro referendum as soon as this Autumn... 21st June 2001 · 1 min read
