Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.) The latest euro-zone money data suggest that the ECB’s liquidity provisions are doing nothing to boost broad money growth in the region. This will increase the pressure on the ECB to announce bold... 29th April 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB: Taylor rule points to much bigger stimulus needed The Financial Times recently reported that, according to internal analysis prepared for the Fed’s last policy meeting, the ‘ideal’ interest rate in the US should be minus 5%. The analysis was based on... 28th April 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Just how serious is the threat of a euro-zone default? With the euro-zone set to enter its worst recession in the post-war period, concerns about the prospect of a member state defaulting on its debt have rocketed and even prompted speculation of a euro... 23rd April 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Deteriorating fiscal position won't trigger a default The euro-zone 2008 budget deficit figures show that the health of the public finances in parts of the region has deteriorated at an alarming rate. Nonetheless, we think that the state of the public... 22nd April 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB moving towards unconventional policies Although the ECB’s 25bp interest rate cut was smaller than expected, the decision appears to have reflected a desire to maintain the corridor between the official rate and deposit rates rather than a... 2nd April 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Focus Euro-zone capital values to fall by at least a third We have cut our euro-zone commercial property forecasts. We now expect capital values in most markets to fall by between 30% and 40% from their peak, with the bulk of those falls being seen by the end... 31st March 2009 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Any hints of asset purchases? With the euro-zone recession still gathering pace, we see the ECB cutting interest rates by another 50 basis points to 1.0% this month. Indeed, it should not be long before rates reach 0.5%. But the... 26th March 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.) The latest euro-zone money supply figures further support the view that the ECB’s injections of short-term liquidity into the banking sector will not be sufficient on their own to encourage banks to... 26th March 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Will the ECB ever catch up? The Federal Reserve’s decision to embark on an even bolder program of quantitative easing has left the ECB apparently lagging still further behind other central banks in tackling the economic crisis... 19th March 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB moving towards unconventional policy Following the expected 50bp interest rate cut to 1.5%, the ECB made some broadly encouraging comments about further policy support to come. No plan is in place for quantitative easing, but the Bank... 5th March 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Money data confirm banks' reluctance to lend The latest euro-zone money data provide further worrying signs that the credit crunch is tightening its grip on the wider economy. Looking ahead, falling bank capital looks set to prompt a sustained... 26th February 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Recession to take a larger toll on rental values across the euro-zone The rapid deterioration in the euro-zone economic outlook over the past three or four months has left our existing rental value forecasts looking too optimistic. Indeed, taking the euro-zone as a... 26th February 2009 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Another step towards zero, but still no plan for QE With the euro-zone recession deepening, the ECB is almost certain to deliver the 50bp interest rate cut that President Trichet signalled last month. What’s more, we expect hints of further cuts to... 26th February 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Emerging Europe concerns likely to intensify Concerns over Western banks’ exposure to Emerging Europe look likely to intensify as the news from the region continues to deteriorate. Both the euro and the Swedish krona could suffer further as a... 18th February 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Lower borrowing rates won't kick-start the economy The recent falls in borrowing rates for euro-zone households and firms suggest that last year’s interest rate reductions by the ECB are already filtering through to the wider economy. While this is... 9th February 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB pauses, but rates still heading towards zero Although the ECB left interest rates on hold at 2% as expected this month, it hinted clearly that rates would fall by a further 50bp next month. What’s more, President Trichet’s dovish tone supported... 5th February 2009 · 1 min read
