Europe Economics Update Euro-zone bank losses: halfway through? In its latest Financial Stability Review, published yesterday afternoon, the ECB has taken a less gloomy view on the potential losses that euro-zone banks still have to face relative to a previous IMF... 16th June 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone prospects improve by less than elsewhere The recent upward revision to our forecasts for the US and UK economies has prompted only a modest increase in our euro-zone forecast given less convincing signs of a recovery so far and a... 8th June 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Euro-zone prime office yield convergence: a temporary phase? Since mid-2007, the yield gap for prime office property in five of the euro-zone’s larger office markets has narrowed sharply. To us, this convergence suggests that, to date, investors have not placed... 5th June 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB does the bare minimum By leaving interest rates on hold and simply revealing the details of previously announced modest covered bond purchases, the ECB did the least that might have been expected today. Accordingly, the... 4th June 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Trade finance - still costly and hard to get The collapse in euro-zone exports in Q1 – and indeed in Q4 last year – was greater than would be expected from the decline in global demand. Anecdotal evidence suggests that the drying up of trade... 4th June 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) April’s data revealed that there was no let-up in the downward trend in both broad money and lending growth in the euro-zone. This further supports our view that the ECB’s injections of short-term... 29th May 2009 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB still hesitant to pull out all the stops Euro-zone interest rates will almost certainly be on hold in June, but the focus has shifted to any developments regarding unconventional policies. The Bank is likely to confirm its intention to start... 28th May 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus The euro-zone inventory overhang has yet to unwind Our analysis suggests that the inventory rundown underway in the euro-zone manufacturing sector has further to go and, crucially, that the pace of destocking is likely to be even greater in Q2 than in... 27th May 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Don’t get too excited about the cycle’s twists and turns The financial crisis triggered a synchronised shock that temporarily interrupted most economic activities. However, at some point households and businesses will start making some of the decisions... 22nd May 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update The biggest 'green shoot' is still missing While the latest OECD leading indicators brought further signs of the ‘green shoots’ of recovery in some euro-zone economies, Germany continues to suffer from the weakness in global trade. Until that... 12th May 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Likely drop in Q1 spending not a sign of things to come Although euro-zone retail sales have dropped lately, other types of spending appear to have held up relatively well. Sadly, it seems unlikely that this trend lasted into the first quarter and we... 12th May 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB disappoints on unconventional policies The ECB continues to lag behind. Although it delivered a 25bp interest rate cut today, the unconventional policy measures also announced look very timid compared to those already adopted by other... 7th May 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB's survey points to slower pace of credit tightening The Fed’s latest Senior Loan Officer Survey suggested that constraints on the supply of credit in the US have eased in the second quarter. (See our US Economics Update “Fed’s survey suggests credit... 5th May 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack The euro-zone rental recession gathers pace (May 09) In some sectors, most notably the office market, commercial property yields stabilised in Q1, or at least rose more slowly. But we doubt the upward yield shift is over. In any event, the rental... 1st May 2009 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Is the ECB ready to take the plunge into QE? The ECB is almost certain to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 1% this month, where they should remain for some time. But after last month’s hints that further unconventional policies could be... 30th April 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.) The latest euro-zone money data suggest that the ECB’s liquidity provisions are doing nothing to boost broad money growth in the region. This will increase the pressure on the ECB to announce bold... 29th April 2009 · 1 min read
