ECB Watch Benign inflation outlook to keep rates on hold The ECB meeting on February 4th is likely to be uneventful, with interest rates on hold and no significant change to existing plans to gradually phase out unconventional support for the banking sector... 28th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Improvement in industry will be slow to feed through to rents The rise in industrial orders and production in the euro-zone in November is encouraging news for industrial property. However, with ample spare capacity in the sector, and the outlook for consumer... 25th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone escapes inflation fears The recent sharp rise in CPI inflation in both the US and the UK has caused concern that interest rate hikes might not be far off. But euro-zone inflation has been far more subdued, challenging the... 25th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jan.) January’s small fall in the euro-zone composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) supports the message from Tuesday’s ZEW survey that the recovery might be losing momentum. 21st January 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Can euro-zone accession rescue Emerging Europe? As Eastern Europe limps out of recession, enthusiasm for euro accession appears to be building. In a speech yesterday, Hungarian PM Gordon Bajnai said that his country should adopt the euro ‘as soon... 20th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade Bal. (Nov.) & Final CPI (Dec.) November’s fall in euro-zone exports could signal that the strong euro is beginning to take its toll on exporters. Nonetheless, in Q4 at least, the external sector is likely to have continued to... 15th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB holds its line There were no surprises from the ECB today as it waits to judge the impact of previously announced plans to phase out its emergency lending to banks. But the Bank’s cautious tone on the economic... 14th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Nov.) November’s strong gain in euro-zone industrial production suggested that the sector is still coping fairly well with the euro’s strength. But industrial activity still looks unlikely to boost the... 14th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly New Year challenges for the euro-zone For some time, we have been fairly optimistic about the prospects for the euro-zone in 2010. Nonetheless, the outlook remains highly uncertain and there are several risks which could derail the... 11th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production & EZ Unemployment (Nov.) November’s renewed increase in German industrial production is a welcome sign that the recovery there is back on track. But with unemployment still rising in the euro-zone as a whole, it could be some... 8th January 2010 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Gently does it After outlining the start of its exit strategy last month, we doubt that the ECB will announce any further changes at the forthcoming meeting. The Bank might increase the interest rate on its... 7th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Euro-zone retail rental values will fall everywhere in 2010 The latest fall in euro-zone retail sales confirmed that the wider economic recovery has not yet spread to the consumer sector, despite nine consecutive monthly rises in consumer confidence. And, as... 7th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Dec.) & Retail Sales (Nov.) December’s rise in the EC measure of euro-zone economic sentiment was fairly encouraging. Unfortunately, though, November’s fall in retail sales confirmed that the recovery has yet to reach the... 7th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How much will fiscal tightening hurt Europe? Greeces troubles have highlighted the need for decisive fiscal consolidation in at least parts of the euro-zone. This need not be as aggressive as in the UK or US, but could still knock over 0.5% off... 7th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Producer Prices (Nov.) & Final PMIs (Dec.) Euro-zone producer price inflation continued to inch up in November. But it remains deep in negative territory, suggesting that pipeline inflationary pressures remain very weak and that core CPI... 6th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI & German Unemployment (Dec.) December’s rise in euro-zone inflation reflects temporary energy effects. With economic activity still at very low levels, deflation remains a bigger risk for the region than high inflation in the... 5th January 2010 · 1 min read
