Europe Economics Update Fiscal fears & consumer caution darken euro-zone outlook We have revised our forecasts for the euro-zone economy down in response to the escalating fiscal crisis and fading prospects of a consumer recovery. The changes strengthen our view that ECB interest... 25th March 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.) February’s euro-zone money supply figures provided few signs that the ECB’s unlimited provisions of liquidity are prompting much of a pick-up in broad money and bank lending. 25th March 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs & German Ifo (Mar.) March’s increases in the euro-zone PMI and German Ifo surveys bring some encouragement that the economic recovery in the region has not ground completely to a halt, but the outlook remains fragile. 24th March 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Deflation could undermine fiscal consolidation Worries about euro-zone fiscal plans have centred mainly on governments’ overly optimistic forecasts for real GDP growth. But weaker inflation could also pose a problem for the region’s public... 23rd March 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Few signs of hope for the euro-zone’s periphery Developments of the past week have brought very little comfort for the euro-zone’s troubled periphery. There has been only limited progress on aid for Greece and the EC has reiterated the need for... 22nd March 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone fiscal squeeze far from over While worries about Greece’s fiscal position have recently eased somewhat, the EC’s latest assessments underline the need for a prolonged bout of fiscal consolidation right across the euro-zone over... 17th March 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Mar.) & Euro-zone Final CPI (Feb.) March’s fall in German ZEW investor sentiment confirms that confidence in the economic recovery remains fairly fragile. And with euro-zone CPI inflation still very subdued, the ECB is under no... 16th March 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Jan.) The latest euro-zone industrial production figures provide some hope that the recovery in the wider economy has not ground to a complete halt. 12th March 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Labour market prospects still weak On the whole, last week’s news on the euro-zone economy was once again pretty disappointing. But the recent stabilisation in the unemployment rate is at least a little more encouraging. Unfortunately... 8th March 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB winds down unconventional support The ECB is withdrawing its unconventional policy support a bit more quickly than had been expected. But its gloomy take on the economic outlook and the prospect of aggressive fiscal tightening in... 4th March 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4) The second euro-zone GDP release for Q4 brings some hope that the slowdown in growth at the end of last year at least partly reflected temporary factors. But the recovery in the region remains fragile... 4th March 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Jan.) & Final PMI (Feb.) February’s final PMI survey suggests that the euro-zone economy is still expanding only slowly. And with retail sales falling again in January, the much-needed consumer recovery has yet to materialise... 3rd March 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Jan.) & Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) January’s increase in euro-zone unemployment shows that households’ real incomes remain under strain despite very low inflation. At least February’s final Purchasing Managers’ Index points to a... 1st March 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Are things really as bad as they look? Last week’s disappointing data releases begged the question of whether the euro-zone recovery has ground completely to a halt. The second GDP release confirmed that the German economy stagnated in Q4... 1st March 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone CPI (Final Jan.), Ger. & Sp. CPI (1st Est. Feb.) The latest euro-zone, German and Spanish CPI figures highlight the continued lack of inflation pressure in the region. The ECB’s main worry should be the continued threat of deflation, rather than a... 26th February 2010 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Another small step towards the exit The ECB will announce the next step in its plan to phase out unconventional policy support this month. This might well be to increase the interest rate on its three-month loans to commercial banks... 25th February 2010 · 1 min read
