Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jul.) July’s rise in the euro-zone composite PMI suggests that, for now at least, the region is (perhaps surprisingly) evading the threat of a double-dip recession apparently facing the US and UK. 22nd July 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Industrial divergences likely to grow Last week’s euro-zone industrial data provided further evidence that the recovery in the sector remains on track. But it also added to worries that divergences within the region are building and that... 19th July 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade Balance (May) Euro-zone exports continued to recover in May. But as the global economic revival loses momentum, weaker export growth will exacerbate the negative effects of the fiscal squeeze on the wider economy. 16th July 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (May) & Final CPI (Jun.) May’s euro-zone industrial production data confirm that the recovery remains on track for now. But as global demand slows and domestic demand is hit by the fiscal squeeze, the revival in the wider... 14th July 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB to support banks as stress tests bring little comfort Last week’s confirmation that stress tests of EU banks will be published on 23rd July did little to ease fears about the sector, probably because the scenarios considered will not be adverse enough... 12th July 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB to maintain support for banks After leaving interest rates unchanged today, the ECB confirmed that it would continue to support the banking sector with unlimited liquidity provision. And its cautious tone regarding the economic... 8th July 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Why the euro-zone needs to break up The threatened break-up of the euro-zone, which many see as a potential disaster, would actually open the door to renewed economic growth, not just for the weaker members of the zone, but for Europe... 7th July 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone break-up now more likely than not We have come to the conclusion that the balance of probabilities has swung against the euro-zone surviving in its present form. We have been brought to this point by our analysis of the problems of... 6th July 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Banking strains won’t ease soon On the face of it, there were some encouraging signs last week that the euro-zone banking system is becoming less reliant on the ECB for funding and is switching to borrowing from more conventional... 5th July 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment & Producer prices (May) May’s euro-zone unemployment figures highlight the growing divergences between the core and peripheral euro-zone economies and add to evidence that the latter group’s economic woes are far from over. 2nd July 2010 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Pledging support for troubled banks With concerns about the euro-zone banking sector growing again, markets will be hoping for reassurance that the ECB will continue to provide ample liquidity. At the same time, the ECB is likely to... 1st July 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Mixed economic growth prospects point to divergent property returns (Vol 2 2010) The euro-zone commercial property market outlook has been clouded by the sovereign debt crisis, but some markets are more exposed than others. Our latest forecasts envisage a growing divergence among... 1st July 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI & German Unemployment (Jun.) June’s euro-zone CPI data confirm that price pressures are very subdued. And while the continued fall in German unemployment brings hope of a modest consumer recovery there, it will not be strong... 30th June 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Jun.) June’s small increase in the EC measure of euro-zone economic sentiment is a relief after falls in other surveys lately. But it still points to only a modest recovery in the region as a whole, with... 29th June 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) May’s euro-zone money supply and bank lending figures suggest that banks remain in no mood to lend, highlighting the need for the ECB to maintain its unconventional policy support measures. 28th June 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone divergences widening Last week’s news on the euro-zone economy was fairly downbeat and suggested that divergences within the region have continued to widen. Germany, in particular, still seems to be benefitting from the... 28th June 2010 · 1 min read
