Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.) The latest money and credit figures show that annual lending growth is continuing to pick up. Nonetheless, with the periphery’s banks still in a vulnerable position, the ECB’s plan for a gradual... 26th November 2010 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Phasing out support despite peripheral crisis The ECB faces the difficult task this month of weighing up the periphery’s disastrous situation on the one hand and pretty strong growth in the core euro-zone economies on the other. With the region’s... 25th November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will Spain be the undoing of the euro-zone? With Ireland finally accepting a bailout, attention has turned to who might be next. Spain’s position is far less precarious, but there are some worrying similarities. And given the economy’s size... 23rd November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Nov.) November’s surprise rise in the euro-zone PMI survey suggests that the economy has continued to expand amid the turmoil in the periphery. 23rd November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW (Nov.) & EZ Final CPI (Oct.) November’s rise in German ZEW investor sentiment suggests that the euro-zone’s core has remained encouragingly resilient to the periphery’s troubles for now. But we still see German growth slowing... 16th November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Recovery slowing as peripheral woes deepen This week has seen worries about the euro-zone’s periphery escalate again, with Ireland in the spotlight. While the gradually emerging details of a permanent “crisis resolution mechanism” have helped... 15th November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q3) The slowdown in euro-zone GDP in the third quarter will do little to ease growing fears about the region’s periphery. The 0.4% quarterly expansion was a touch weaker than the consensus forecast and... 12th November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the euro defying gravity? The euro’s further rise certainly has not supported our forecast that it might eventually fall to parity against the dollar. The worries about peripheral debt that we had expected to drive the... 8th November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB unwilling to join the party After leaving interest rates on hold today, the ECB signalled that it is certainly not ready to follow the Fed into a renewed bout of unconventional policy support. Bolder action might yet be taken... 4th November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone default mechanism poses near-term risks Proposed arrangements for a permanent crisis resolution mechanism in the euro-zone threaten to have counter-productive effects on member countries’ fiscal consolidation efforts. 2nd November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Industrial recovery still going strong for now Recent news from the euro-zone industrial sector has provided some encouraging signs that, for now at least, output is merely starting to grow at a more sustainable rate, rather than grinding to a... 1st November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Oct.) & Unemployment (Sep.) The latest euro-zone unemployment and inflation data attest to the absence of price pressures in the region. As inflation drops back next year, we think the ECB is more likely to up its unconventional... 29th October 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Recovery in euro-zone investment volumes is faltering (Q4 10) The recovery in European commercial property investment volumes seen since early 2009 seems to have reached a plateau. Although euro-zone property assets still look relatively attractively priced... 28th October 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Oct.) October’s improvement in the EC consumer and business survey and fall in German unemployment suggest that the euro-zone is holding up well for now. But the worrying divergence between core and... 28th October 2010 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB's tightening bias should not last long Recent comments from ECB members, together with a reduction in its bank lending and halt to bond purchases, suggest that the Bank has maintained a tightening bias. It will probably keep open the... 28th October 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Would a break-up of the euro help or hinder recovery? The long-term effects of some form of break-up of the euro-zone might ultimately prove to be positive. But the likely short-term damage means that such an event would hinder, rather than help, the... 27th October 2010 · 1 min read
