Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Current account deficits, MNB rate cut guidance Balance of payments data out of Central and Eastern Europe this week showed unexpected current account deficits in Poland and Czechia in May, but the big picture is that external positions are... 19th July 2024 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Outlook for euro-zone retail sales has improved After a roller-coaster ride over the past couple of years, we think euro-zone retail sales are likely to rise gradually in the coming quarters. Consumption has recovered a long way following the... 19th July 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Jun. 2024) June’s disappointing public finances figures suggest that public borrowing is on track to come in a little higher than the OBR’s 2024/25 forecast of £87.2bn. Admittedly, the OBR may grant the... 19th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily ECB overshadowed by French politics Investors’ expectations for ECB rate cuts have not changed much over recent months and today’s meeting did little to change that. Instead, euro-zone assets have been influenced more by French politics... 18th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update September cut likely but ECB in no rush after that Today’s decisions to leave interest rates on hold and give no clear signals about the future path of interest rates were in line with expectations. The overall tone was arguably slightly dovish... 18th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response ECB Policy Announcement (July 2024) Today’s decisions to leave interest rates on hold and give no clear signals about the future path of interest rates was in line with expectations. A cut in September still seems more likely than not... 18th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update UK looking increasingly attractive compared to France Newfound political stability in the UK contrasts with the now more uncertain political backdrop in France. A better relative outlook for economic growth and risk-free rates had already led to a... 18th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Jul. 2024) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The latest data out of Emerging Europe suggest that economic growth in Central Europe... 18th July 2024 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (May 2024) While the easing in wage growth in May was broadly in line with what the consensus and the Bank of England expected, it probably won’t offset the Bank’s concerns about the stickiness of services... 18th July 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack UK Commercial Property Chart Pack (Jul. 24) Yields look to have topped out in most sectors and alongside solid rental growth that means capital values are close to bottoming out. However, with no yield compression in sight the recovery will be... 17th July 2024 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Jun. 2024) CPI inflation stayed in line with the 2.0% target in June – exactly where the Bank of England thought it would be (consensus and CE forecasts 1.9%) – but the composition of inflation remains a problem... 17th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Bank Lending Survey points to recovery in credit The Bank Lending Survey suggests that there was a pick-up in demand for bank loans in the second quarter particularly for residential mortgages and consumer credit. This is consistent with the... 16th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (May 2024) Industrial production in the euro-zone fell again in May and we think the outlook remains poor. 15th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Traditional gold price drivers come back into focus The ~18% rise in gold prices seen this year has largely defied the traditional logic of demand drivers. Indeed, the surge in gold prices between February and April took place against a backdrop of a... 12th July 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Spain versus England: An economics match-up If the economic outlook translated to success on the football pitch, faster GDP growth and lower interest rates may mean Spain has the edge over England to win the men’s Euros on Sunday night. We're... 12th July 2024 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly France struggling (and not just at football) France has made little progress towards forming a new government since the second round of the elections last Sunday. But when a new administration is eventually formed, it will struggle to agree a... 12th July 2024 · 5 mins read
