Event UK Drop-In: Budget reaction – Rachel Reeves’ statement and the UK economic and market consequences 30th October 2024, 3:00PM GMT After months of speculation, investors will find out how the UK Chancellor plans to balance tax, spending and investment decisions as the new government tries to fill a fiscal hole and support the...
Event UK Drop-In: Budget preview – What to expect from Rachel Reeves’ big day 16th October 2024, 3:00PM BST This could be a Budget statement that defines the UK economy’s performance through the rest of this decade.
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Oct. 2024) Economic growth in the euro-zone slowed in Q2 and timelier data suggest that it weakened further in Q3. That, together with the fall in headline inflation below 2% in September, should prompt another... 4th October 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone household saving rate likely to stay high Data published today show that the euro-zone’s household saving rate rose even further in Q2 this year. The increase since late 2022 can be attributed to low consumer confidence and high interest... 4th October 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (Sep 24) The headline CIPS construction PMI rebounded to a 2½ year high of 57.2 in September as the prospect of lower interest rates, rising capital values and a government committed to boosting home... 4th October 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s defence spending to raise inflation, fiscal risks The 2025 draft budget recently outlined by Russia’s finance ministry shows that, rather than falling next year as initially planned, defence spending will rise by more than 20% to hit 6.2% of GDP... 3rd October 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We see more weakness in GBP, notably against EUR The British pound fell sharply today, and we suspect that it will weaken more over the next year or so given our dovish view of Bank of England policy, the currency’s still-high valuation, and... 3rd October 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Headline inflation will be below 2% next year After falling to 1.8% in September, headline inflation in the euro-zone is almost certain to rise in the final few months of 2024. But we think that falling oil and natural gas prices will cause it to... 3rd October 2024 · 13 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Out-of-town retail will continue to beat the street Non-high street retail subsectors have seen a stronger rental recovery from post-pandemic lows than high street shops. And we think this outperformance will continue given tighter availability and... 3rd October 2024 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly War escalates; all eyes on Israel Global headlines this week have been dominated by the escalating conflict in the Middle East and attention is now focussed on Israel and the scale and nature of its response to Iran’s retaliatory... 3rd October 2024 · 8 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (September) The unexpectedly sharp fall in Switzerland’s headline and core inflation in September will cement the SNB’s dovish stance and supports our view that the Bank will cut its key policy rate by at least... 3rd October 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Sep.) The smaller-than-expected decline in Turkey’s headline rate to 49.4% y/y in September will be a disappointment to policymakers at the central bank, and supports our view that a monetary easing cycle... 3rd October 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.) The decision by the National Bank of Poland to leave its policy rate on hold again today, at 5.75%, was never in doubt, and we continue to think that the easing cycle won’t resume until mid-2025. Our... 2nd October 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Commercial Property Chart Pack Global Commercial Property Chartpack (Q3 2024) All-property values have stabilised in the UK but we expect further falls elsewhere, especially in the US. Combined with a weaker office outlook, the US is set to underperform over the next couple of... 2nd October 2024 · 0 mins read
UK Economics Update Trump tariffs may not be so bad for the UK One way the US election could influence the UK economy would be if Donald Trump won and delivered on his pledge to put a 10% tariff on UK exports being sent to the US. We suspect the impact on UK... 2nd October 2024 · 7 mins read
