Europe Rapid Response ECB Policy Announcement (October 2024) Alongside its decision to cut interest rates by 25bp, the ECB stuck to its guidance about data dependence and making decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis. But the press release also acknowledged... 17th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.) The decision by the Turkish central bank to leave its policy rate on hold again today, at 50.00%, was accompanied by communications which support our view that monetary easing is still some way off... 17th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Some good news on underlying inflation The detailed breakdown of September’s inflation data, published this morning, showed that underlying price pressures softened slightly. We think that core inflation – and services inflation in... 17th October 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Budget 2024 Preview In her first Budget on Wednesday 30th October the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, faces the unenviable task of trying to achieve three objectives. First, being able to say there will be “no return to... 16th October 2024 · 26 mins read
Europe Economics Update Further thoughts on France's 2025 budget We are nudging down our forecast for economic growth in France next year from 1.0% to 0.7% because of the government’s plan to tighten fiscal policy. That said, we think the deficit will come down... 16th October 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update All signs point to capital value recovery Surveys of banks, developers and surveyors all point to a recovery in capital values over the next few months. As does the behaviour of investors. The strength of that recovery is more uncertain, with... 16th October 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Sep. 2024) The surprisingly large drop in CPI inflation in September increases the chances that the Bank of England will speed up the pace of interest rate cuts by reducing rates by 25 basis points (bps) at both... 16th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Israel: inflation softens in September but upside risks rising Israel’s economy is under strain from the conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon, with supply constraints both holding back growth and causing inflation concerns to build. The softer-than-expected inflation... 15th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italy budget: better than France but concerns remain Italy’s 2025 budget, set to be approved by cabinet today, suggests Italy will bring its deficit below the 3% of GDP limit imposed by EU fiscal rules much sooner than France. But Italy’s debt-to-GDP... 15th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What to expect from the BRICS+ summit The BRICS+ summit in Russia next week is likely to see another push on expansion, mainly to close allies of China and Russia. But limited economic benefits for potential new members, divisions among... 15th October 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (August 2024) While the 1.8% m/m rise in industrial production in August was the strongest monthly rise in over a year, it is probably not the start of a sustained recovery. We think production is more likely to... 15th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Bank Lending Survey points to patchy recovery The ECB’s latest Bank Lending Survey suggests that demand for credit is recovering, but the rebound in housing loans is much stronger than in consumer or enterprise loans. 15th October 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Aug. 2024) The further fall in wage growth in August, together with signs that the labour market continued to loosen gradually, adds further support to the widespread expectation that the Bank of England will... 15th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Consumer Prices (Sep.) Headline inflation fell to 8.6% y/y in Russia in September but this was a touch less than expected and the breakdown showed that core price pressures are easing only very slowly. It now looks very... 11th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt the Budget will prevent Gilts from rallying We think that the larger rise in yields in the UK than elsewhere over the past month is due to expectations that the Budget will boost demand rather than fiscal fears. That said, there is some upside... 11th October 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly September CPI data, Poland’s fiscal tightening plans The batch of September inflation data this week offered some welcome signs for policymakers, but the Hungarian central bank seems concerned about recent currency weakness which means that the easing... 11th October 2024 · 7 mins read
