Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Hungary back in recession, War in Ukraine

The Q3 GDP data out of Central Europe this week continued a bleak run of activity data for the region, with Hungary’s economy significantly underperforming expectations. The risks to our GDP growth...

1st November 2024 · 8 mins read

UK Economics Weekly

Is this Liz Truss 2.0?

The market fallout from Wednesday’s Budget is a long way from the 2022 mini-budget episode. While we can’t completely rule out the possibility of rapid rises in gilt yields triggering a self...

1st November 2024 · 4 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

Strong GDP & inflation not enough to prevent 50bp cut

The stronger-than-expected euro-zone GDP and inflation data released this week, as well as some comments by ECB policymakers, poured some cold water on expectations that the ECB might accelerate the...

1st November 2024 · 8 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Euro-zone investment growth to remain weak

Euro-zone investment has been weak since the pandemic. And despite the recent downward revision to our ECB interest rate forecasts, we don’t think it will pick up substantially, given the sluggish...

1st November 2024 · 4 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Swiss CPI (October)

Another larger-than-expected fall in both headline and core inflation in Switzerland will increase concerns that the country could temporarily enter deflation next year. This will pile on pressure on...

1st November 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Housing Market Rapid Response

UK Nationwide House Prices (Oct. 2024)

October’s 0.1% m/m rise in Nationwide house prices was a bit weaker than expected (consensus forecast +0.3% m/m, CE +0.4% m/m) and suggests that the recent falls in mortgage rates may be providing...

1st November 2024 · 3 mins read

Bonds & Equities

How worrying is the surge in Gilt yields?

While the market fallout from yesterday’s UK budget announcement is still a very long way from the 2022 “mini-budget” debacle, the surge in Gilt yields and fall in sterling over the past couple of...

31st October 2024 · 5 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

Budget not a game-changer for the housing market

The policies announced in yesterday’s Budget won’t have a significant bearing on the housing market. But the prospect that interest rates are a bit higher may soften demand and creates some downside...

31st October 2024 · 5 mins read

Europe Economics Update

One step at a time for the Riksbank

Despite the Riksbank reopening the door to a 50bp cut at its last meeting, we think it will proceed gradually and cut by 25bps next week to 3.0%. This is because the policy rate is approaching the...

31st October 2024 · 5 mins read

BoE Watch

Will the BoE start to cut interest rates quicker?

The Bank of England will almost certainly cut interest rates for the second time in this cycle, from 5.00% to 4.75%, at the meeting on Thursday 7th November. But it is unlikely to hint that it intends...

31st October 2024 · 8 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

Has the Budget derailed the CRE recovery?

We doubt the sell-off in gilts following the Budget will gather momentum and cause another step down in commercial property values. However, given the current narrow spread between risk-free interest...

31st October 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Q3 RICS: Weak occupier demand a risk to recovery

The latest RICS survey showed that investor sentiment continued to improve in Europe in Q3, adding to the growing evidence that the market has bottomed. However, declines in reported occupier demand...

31st October 2024 · 4 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Norges Bank to leave door open for December rate cut

Norway’s economy is struggling and inflation keeps falling faster than Norges Bank expects, yet the Bank has not started loosening policy. Next week we think it will open the door to a December rate...

31st October 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Chart Pack

Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Oct. 2024)

Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The latest activity data out of Emerging Europe have been surprisingly weak, and GDP...

31st October 2024 · 1 min read

UK Commercial Property Update

RICS survey highlights uneven nature of recovery

The Q3 RICS commercial survey painted a somewhat mixed picture of the market. There was a slight improvement in investment and capital value expectations, but rental expectations were revised down...

31st October 2024 · 3 mins read