UK Commercial Property Update Are we underestimating the capital value recovery? The strong recovery in property equities prices across the UK, euro-zone and US implies larger rises in commercial property capital values by the end of the year than we are currently forecasting... 22nd October 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.) The Hungarian central bank acknowledged the possibility that interest rates could be left on hold for an “extended period” after it paused its easing cycle today. We maintain our forecast that the... 22nd October 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Outlook Lower mortgage rates to outdo higher taxes A fall in mortgage rates from 4.5% now to around 3.6% in late 2025 may mean that, despite increases in taxes in the Budget on 30th October, house prices rise by 5.0% in 2025 rather than the consensus... 22nd October 2024 · 16 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Activity Data (Sep.) The much weaker-than-expected Polish retail sales data for September suggest that the economy slowed more than we had been expecting in Q3. Even so, we think that this weakness was probably caused by... 22nd October 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Sep. 2024) While it is too late for September’s disappointing public finances figures to influence the amount of headroom the OBR will hand the Chancellor in the Budget on 30th October, they do highlight the... 22nd October 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus CEE: rapid wage growth to keep fuelling inflation The persistent strength of wage growth in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) reflects continued tightness in labour markets and lingering effects from the 2022-23 inflation shock. While the latter... 21st October 2024 · 15 mins read
Bonds Update Corporate credit spreads may stay tight a long while yet Although corporate credit spreads in the US and the UK have nearly reached multi-decade lows, we think they will remain near those levels over the next year or so. And we don’t see spreads in the euro... 18th October 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Current accounts, BRICS preview, Sinwar death The current account data released across the region over the past week show that external positions have continued to improve in some countries (notably Turkey), while in others they are deteriorating... 18th October 2024 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Does a £40bn “funding gap” mean £40bn of tax rises? The Chancellor’s £40bn “funding gap” doesn’t mean that the Budget on 30th October will involve £40bn of tax rises. Some of this “funding gap” will probably be paid for with higher borrowing and some... 18th October 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Weak euro-zone activity data, ECB responds As widely expected, the ECB cut its policy rates by 25bp yesterday, but its policy statement was a bit more dovish than anticipated and a 50bp cut in the future is a growing possibility. Meanwhile... 18th October 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Sep. 2024) September’s 0.3% m/m rise in retail sales volumes was stronger than expected (consensus forecast -0.3% m/m, CE -0.5% m/m) and suggests that while households may be concerned about possible tax rises... 18th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily ECB easing unlikely to ease peripheral fiscal concerns The dovish tone at today’s ECB monetary policy meeting supports our view that the ECB will cut by 25bp at the December meeting. However, the risks to our policy rate forecasts are increasingly skewed... 17th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB history shows 50bp rate cut is possible Before the global financial crisis, 50bp interest rate cuts by the ECB were more common than 25bp reductions. Circumstances today are different, but if ECB policymakers are convinced that they need to... 17th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus EM debt restructurings: light at the end of the tunnel? Several EMs have reached provisional agreements with creditors to restructure their sovereign debts in recent months, including Zambia, Ukraine, Sri Lanka and Ghana. In principle, restructurings... 17th October 2024 · 21 mins read
Europe Economics Update 25bp rate cuts by ECB most likely, but 50bp possible Christine Lagarde’s message in today’s ECB press conference was distinctly dovish and supports our view that the ECB will cut interest rates by 25bp at each of the next few meetings, at the very least... 17th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Dutch logistics will continue to outperform Dutch prime logistics rent growth is set to be among the highest in the region over the next few years. That reflects both strong prospects for leasing, thanks to a bright economic outlook and greater... 17th October 2024 · 3 mins read
