Europe Economics Update Spanish housing market downturn far from over The latest housing market data show that the residential property market downturn is continuing to gather pace. With most valuation measures still suggesting that house prices remain well above their... 15th July 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Trailing behind (Q3 2009) On the whole, signs of recovery have been less convincing in Europe than elsewhere. A relatively cautious policy stance and the delayed effects of the credit crunch suggest that the euro-zone, in... 14th July 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Euro-zone commercial property yields still have some way to rise (Q2 2009) Our forecasts for euro-zone commercial property markets have not been altered significantly from those we released in March. (See European Commercial Property Focus, “Euro-zone capital values to fall... 13th July 2009 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Capital values will fall furthest in Emerging European markets (Q2 2009) The commercial property correction is already well advanced but we think it has further to run. Indeed, in non-euro-zone Western markets we ultimately expect capital values to fall by between 40% and... 13th July 2009 · 1 min read
Lacklustre recovery will keep interest rates and bond yields low (Q2 2009) The improvement in business and consumer confidence surveys has to date been less convincing in the euro-zone than elsewhere. Economic activity is unlikely to do better than stagnate in 2010 and will... 9th July 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Spain: How long will the pain last? Like some other deficit economies, Spain has so far weathered the global economic slump surprisingly well. But this is unlikely to last. We still expect Spains considerable economic imbalances to lead... 6th July 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italian banks – weathering the storm better than most Italian banks have so far coped with the financial crisis better than most of their European peers. While this has not prevented a slowdown in lending, the problems in the supply of credit seem... 2nd July 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB relying heavily on bank lending channel Despite weaker signs of recovery in the euro-zone than elsewhere, the ECB’s policy support remains considerably narrower than other central banks’. President Trichet suggested today that the Bank is... 2nd July 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Swedish Riksbank not ready to take the next step, yet Despite tentative signs of green shoots appearing, the Swedish Riksbank reduced interest rates to 0.25% and remains committed to keeping them at this rate for a prolonged period. But for now at least... 2nd July 2009 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swedish Riksbank not ready to take the next step, yet Despite tentative signs of green shoots appearing, the Swedish Riksbank reduced interest rates to 0.25% and remains committed to keeping them at this rate for a prolonged period. But for now at least... 2nd July 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Deflation arrives Inflation fell below zero for the first time in the post-EMU period in June, probably courtesy of energy related base effects. We expect the inflation rate to remain negative for the next six months... 1st July 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update German occupier outlook darkens as jobs shake-out gathers pace Thanks to a comparatively small labour market downturn, rental value falls for prime property in Germany have been mild relative to elsewhere in the euro-zone. However, with growing signs that the... 1st July 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) The latest euro-zone money and credit figures revealed that, after having flattened off for some time, the monetary base increased again. The hope is that banks will feel encouraged to lend. But there... 30th June 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update No sign of Ireland’s hangover fading. Since the onset of the downturn, the Irish economy has contracted significantly more sharply than other deficit economies such as the US and UK. Unfortunately, Ireland’s troubles appear far from over... 30th June 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German labour market shakeout is just beginning The German labour market held up relatively well at the start of the economic downturn, at least partly reflecting Government incentives for firms to retain workers for shorter hours. But the severity... 29th June 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Weaker currencies unlikely to halt Scandinavian property downturn Weaker currencies will have made commercial property in Sweden and Norway much cheaper for overseas investors to purchase. However, we doubt that this will prompt a surge in foreign capital inflows to... 25th June 2009 · 1 min read
