ECB Watch Maintaining narrow focus on bank lending The ECB looks almost certain to leave interest rates on hold at 1.0% this month, where we expect them to remain until at least the end of 2010. There is little hope that any new unconventional policy... 25th June 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German fiscal rule is not as damaging as it seems The German Government’s recent introduction of a law requiring a balanced budget from 2016 has prompted much debate over just how harmful it might be. Our view is that, while the law might place... 24th June 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Euro-zone PMIs suggest rental values will not stabilise this year June’s flash PMIs for the euro-zone showed a modest improvement compared to May, largely driven by a rise in the manufacturing index. Falls in the service sector index, however, suggest that occupier... 24th June 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Swiss National Bank still pulling out all the stops The SNB’s pledge to go on purchasing large quantities of corporate bonds while providing generous liquidity to the banking sector and intervening ‘decisively’ in currency markets has left it among the... 18th June 2009 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swiss National Bank still pulling out all the stops The SNB’s pledge to go on purchasing large quantities of corporate bonds while providing generous liquidity to the banking sector and intervening ‘decisively’ in currency markets has left it among the... 18th June 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Norwegian interest rates may have troughed Norway’s relatively mild downturn should ensure that the latest 25bp interest rate reduction by the Norges Bank is probably the last in the current cycle. But we still think that the Bank will not... 17th June 2009 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norwegian interest rates may have troughed Norway’s relatively mild downturn should ensure that the latest 25bp interest rate reduction by the Norges Bank is probably the last in the current cycle. But we still think that the Bank will not... 17th June 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Poor labour market data emphasise weak outlook for rental values The rate of decline in euro-zone employment accelerated sharply in the first three months of 2009 and, although survey measures of employment intentions have picked up a little, further significant... 16th June 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the Spanish bank rescue package be enough? The announcement by the Spanish Government that it plans to set up a fund to provide capital to the ailing banking sector is certainly good news. But on its own, it will not be enough to prevent the... 16th June 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone bank losses: halfway through? In its latest Financial Stability Review, published yesterday afternoon, the ECB has taken a less gloomy view on the potential losses that euro-zone banks still have to face relative to a previous IMF... 16th June 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Do office and retail property share a common fair-value benchmark? One simple assumption that we have employed to date in our analysis of European commercial property markets is that, in any given market, the fair-value property/bond yield spread for office and... 11th June 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update The Baltics remain a weight on Sweden's shoulders Today’s announcement that the Swedish Riksbank is to borrow €3bn from the ECB confirms that, while the green shoots of recovery may be starting to emerge in parts of the global economy, the Baltic... 10th June 2009 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update The Baltics remain a weight on Sweden’s shoulders Today’s announcement that the Swedish Riksbank is to borrow €3bn from the ECB confirms that, while the green shoots of recovery may be starting to emerge in parts of the global economy, the Baltic... 10th June 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Risk appetite to fade as recovery disappoints Today we have revised our key economic forecasts. At the same time, we have updated our projections for currency, bond, equity and commodity markets. The new market numbers are presented in the table... 8th June 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone prospects improve by less than elsewhere The recent upward revision to our forecasts for the US and UK economies has prompted only a modest increase in our euro-zone forecast given less convincing signs of a recovery so far and a... 8th June 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Euro-zone prime office yield convergence: a temporary phase? Since mid-2007, the yield gap for prime office property in five of the euro-zone’s larger office markets has narrowed sharply. To us, this convergence suggests that, to date, investors have not placed... 5th June 2009 · 1 min read
