Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Jan.) & Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) January’s increase in euro-zone unemployment shows that households’ real incomes remain under strain despite very low inflation. At least February’s final Purchasing Managers’ Index points to a... 1st March 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swedish GDP (Q4) Q4’s Swedish GDP figures revealed that the economy remains mired in recession, providing a warning to the Riksbank that monetary policy will need to remain very accommodative for the foreseeable... 1st March 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Strong rise in Danish property investment does not yet signal recovery The surge in Danish commercial property investment volumes in 2009Q4 is not as encouraging as it first seems. Although the economy is now expanding again, the 7% peak-to-trough fall in GDP will mean... 1st March 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Are things really as bad as they look? Last week’s disappointing data releases begged the question of whether the euro-zone recovery has ground completely to a halt. The second GDP release confirmed that the German economy stagnated in Q4... 1st March 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone CPI (Final Jan.), Ger. & Sp. CPI (1st Est. Feb.) The latest euro-zone, German and Spanish CPI figures highlight the continued lack of inflation pressure in the region. The ECB’s main worry should be the continued threat of deflation, rather than a... 26th February 2010 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Another small step towards the exit The ECB will announce the next step in its plan to phase out unconventional policy support this month. This might well be to increase the interest rate on its three-month loans to commercial banks... 25th February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Long road to recovery for Finnish and Portuguese retail rents Retail rental values in Helsinki and Lisbon have fallen by more than the euro-zone average. Helsinki has been hit by a steep drop in Finnish consumer spending, while increased supply has added to... 25th February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey & German Unemployment (Feb.) February’s EC consumer and business survey adds to the recent run of worrying evidence on the euro-zone’s prospects. Our forecast for the economy to expand by 1.5% this year will depend on a renewed... 25th February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) January’s euro-zone money supply and lending figures added to evidence that domestic demand remained very subdued at the start of this year. 25th February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek bail-out now more likely than not The revelation that Greece used complex financial assets to improve the official figures on the public finances earlier this decade highlights the uncertainty surrounding the reliability of these... 24th February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Easing German labour costs to help exporters Recent trade union deals point to a slowdown in German wage growth, which will come as a welcome relief to hard-pressed exporters. This supports our view that a robust export recovery will see Germany... 24th February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German GDP (Q4) & Consumer Confidence (Mar.) The second German GDP release confirmed that the recovery ground to a halt in Q4, with exports still rising, but domestic spending very weak. Sadly, the latest fall in consumer confidence suggests... 24th February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Is Q4’s Brussels office occupier market rebound sustainable? The spectacular rebound in office take-up in Brussels at the end of 2009 does not appear to be a total one-off. Indeed, relatively strong underlying demand and service sector sentiment suggests that... 23rd February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Feb.) & French Consumer Spending (Jan.) The latest data add to the recent run of bad news. With German Ifo business sentiment falling in February and French consumer spending dropping in January, there is little hope that the euro-zone... 23rd February 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Is Japan the next Greece? Japan should be able to avoid the sort of crisis that has hit Greece so hard. Government debt may be even larger in Japan, but the country is in a much stronger position in almost every other respect. 22nd February 2010 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Lacklustre economies weigh on occupier markets (Feb 10) Rental values in most sectors and locations either fell or were unchanged in Q4. The sharpest declines occurred in the industrial sector. Scandinavia led a recovery in the investment market and... 22nd February 2010 · 1 min read
