Europe Economics Update ECB pauses, but rates still heading towards zero Although the ECB left interest rates on hold at 2% as expected this month, it hinted clearly that rates would fall by a further 50bp next month. What’s more, President Trichet’s dovish tone supported... 5th February 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Industrial slump intensifies The recession in the euro-zone industrial sector has become even more severe. Production dropped by a further 1.6% m/m in November, leaving the annual growth rate at a record low of -7.7%. What’s more... 4th February 2009 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB worryingly cautious President Trichet’s continued insistence that the next “important” monetary policy meeting will not be until March has more or less ruled out an interest rate cut this month. We still think that weak... 29th January 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone lagging behind on support for banks After the UK Government’s latest announcement of additional measures to support banks, policy in the euro-zone is lagging behind again. We hope that extra support will be announced in time, but the... 22nd January 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Industrial slump deepens downturn (Q1 09) The outlook for the European economy has worsened dramatically as the export-dependent industrial sector has slumped in the face of collapsing global demand. Although falling inflation should boost... 21st January 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus The anatomy of the Great Depression of the 1930s There is still no universally accepted single cause of the Great Depression. But our analysis suggests that the main culprit for the role of catalyst was the bursting of the bubbles in the equity and... 19th January 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB drags its heels While the ECB cut interest rates as expected today, it’s warnings that it will not reduce them again at its next meeting confirm that it will continue to drag its heels compared to other central banks... 15th January 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Falling house prices add to the gloom in Spain The latest news from Spain shows that the housing market downturn is gaining momentum as the economy enters recession. Further sharp falls over the coming quarters are inevitable and we expect house... 15th January 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack GDP to fall by at least 2% this year The latest economic data have been pretty awful. Output in the industrial sector is plummeting in response to weakening global demand. What’s more, there is only limited evidence so far of a boost to... 13th January 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Industrial slump points to deeper and longer recession Hopes that the euro-zone’s relative lack of indebtedness would allow it to fare comparatively well in the global downturn have been dashed by the slump in the industrial sector and insufficient policy... 13th January 2009 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB making slow progress Given the latest sharp fall in inflation and mounting evidence that the euro-zone economy is in the midst of a severe downturn, we see the ECB cutting interest rates by 50bp this month. Indeed, as it... 8th January 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Euro-zone property: are we underestimating small country risk? Over the next two years, we expect the best performing euro-zone commercial property markets to be Greece, Finland and Portugal. All are forecast to deliver better total returns than core markets such... 19th December 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Can the ECB engage in quantitative easing? The latest signal from the US Federal Reserve that it plans to adopt an even more aggressive policy of quantitative easing has fuelled speculation over what other central banks like the ECB might do... 18th December 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Will quantitative easing work? Quantitative easing (QE) is a potentially very powerful tool that could pull economies out of recession and deflation. However, to work fully it may have to be combined with additional measures to... 17th December 2008 · 1 min read
Western European interest rates and bond yields set to tumble (Q1 2009) Much of Europe faces a year of contracting GDP, falling profits and rising unemployment in 2009 and, perhaps 2010. In the Euro-zone, we expect a widespread contraction in GDP, but, with the exception... 12th December 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is criticism of the German Government warranted? The German Government has come under attack from the press and other European leaders for its apparent reluctance to provide its ailing economy with a fiscal boost. In fact, it has done more than is... 11th December 2008 · 1 min read
