ECB Watch Laying the groundwork for policy loosening At the press conference following his final meeting as ECB President, Jean-Claude Trichet will strike a more downbeat tone, suggesting that interest rate cuts are not far off. We are still pencilling... 30th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Sep.) Recent news shows that many of the euro-zone’s fiscally-challenged economies are broadly on track to meet their 2011 budget deficit goals. Nonetheless, we continue to think that several of the region... 30th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Sep.) September’s fall in the EC measure of business and consumer sentiment adds to evidence that the euro-zone economy is on the brink of recession. 30th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Proposed EFSF expansion is not all that it appears Emerging details about the recent proposal to supersize the euro-zone’s bail-out fund suggest that, at best, the plan is simply to use existing funds more imaginatively. Note that even this proposal... 29th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Does Ireland’s recovery provide hope for Southern Europe? The news that Ireland expanded robustly in the first half of the year, might suggest that the Southern European economies may reap similar rewards if they stick with plans to cut their budget deficits... 28th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) Despite renewed hopes that euro-zone policymakers will adopt radical measures to solve the region’s debt crisis, we expect stresses in the banking sector to remain, increasing the chances of the... 28th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update New rescue plans are unlikely to save the euro Talk of radical new measures to bail out highly indebted euro-zone governments and shore up banks throughout the region suggests that policymakers might finally be considering the bold steps that... 27th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Sep.) September’s modest decline in the German Ifo is a relief after sharper falls in other survey indicators. But the continued decline in the Ifo’s expectations index suggests that the euro-zone’s... 27th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Core policymakers resisting calls for decisive action Despite some dire pronouncements from global policymakers last week, there remain few signs that their counterparts in Europe are preparing to pull out all the stops and secure the future of the... 27th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Is the Italian retail market as safe an investment as some think? Anecdotal evidence suggests that many investors believe that the Italian retail market offers a better risk profile than offices or industrial. We are not convinced. Indeed, with consumer spending... 24th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Ireland GDP (Q2) Irish Q2 GDP figures revealed that the economy expanded strongly in the first half of 2011 and add to evidence that Ireland is in a much better position than Greece and Portugal. But given the weak... 23rd September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Sep.) The fall in the euro-zone composite PMI below the theoretical 50 “no-change” barrier provides the strongest sign yet that the region is on the cusp of recession. 23rd September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Sep.) September’s drop in the German ZEW index is another sign that the economy is suffering increasingly from slowing global demand growth and troubles in the eurozone’s periphery. 21st September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Heading for another recession Last week proved to be another rollercoaster week for Greece. We now think that the Government may end up defaulting within months or perhaps even weeks. With concerns about banks’ solvency likely to... 20th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final CPI (Aug.) & Employment (Q2) The latest euro-zone CPI inflation data do nothing to alter our view that underlying price pressures are not as strong as the ECB fears and that official interest rates may fall around the turn of the... 16th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Prod. (Jul.) On the face of it, July’s healthy rise in euro-zone industrial production suggests that near-term growth prospects may not be quite as bad as the business surveys have recently suggested. Nonetheless... 15th September 2011 · 1 min read
