Europe Economics Focus Why is Italy doing so badly? Italy’s second recession in two years is largely due to the loss of competitiveness in manufacturing, reflecting low productivity growth rather than rapid growth in wage costs. This has been... 30th June 2005 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Will the ECB cut rates? The case for a cut in euro-zone interest rates is straightforward: the economic recovery has lost momentum and monetary policy is one of the few remaining levers available to stimulate growth. Indeed... 26th May 2005 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus EU Constitution: How Will Markets React To The Referendums? Recent opinion polls suggest that the French referendum on 29th May is likely to be extremely close, whilst the Dutch referendum (1st June) seems more likely to reject the constitution. In this Focus... 25th May 2005 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus What Happens if the UK Rejects the EU Constitution? Recent opinion polls suggest that the French referendum on 29th May could reject the EU constitution, although the chances are good that ratification could be obtained by repeating the referendum at a... 31st March 2005 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus EU Stability and Growth Pact – An Obituary The changes agreed this week clearly water down the EU stability and growth pact (SGP) and allow far greater scope for countries to run budget deficits above the 3% limit. Thus it may seem odd that... 24th March 2005 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus The implications of record German unemployment German unemployment reached a post-war high in January of over five million. In this Focus we examine the statistics in more detail and assess whether the labour market reforms currently being... 18th February 2005 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus EU Constitution – the economic consequences of rejection Ten EU countries are set to hold referendums on whether to ratify the proposed EU constitution. The UK referendum is the most likely to fail, but for other countries the risk of rejecting the... 10th February 2005 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus EU Constitution: ratification likely to be a rough ride On 20th February Spain will become the first of ten countries to hold a referendum on the proposed EU constitution. This Focus is the first in a series which will set out the key event risks involved... 9th February 2005 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Can the euro-zone economy live with a stronger euro? 18th January 2005 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Will the ECB intervene to restrain the euro? The ECB has already started to express concern about the rising euro. This has led to increased speculation about when the ECB might intervene to resist further strengthening. However, we believe that... 10th November 2004 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Germany underperforms France, but for how long? Germany’s economy has underperformed that of France for a number of years, but this could change if it is successful in pushing through with its reform agenda. Indeed, Germany is now particularly... 30th September 2004 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus The impact of oil prices on euro-zone inflation The rise in oil prices to record highs makes for eye-catching headlines, but it exaggerates the impact on the euro-zone economy. In real terms, oil prices are still far lower than during the true ‘oil... 13th August 2004 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus UK beats France in the European income championships Whatever the football results from Portugal, some countries can at least draw comfort from the latest league table of national incomes. Data from the IMF World Economic Database 2004 allow us to... 18th June 2004 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook The Chancellor's five-point plan for Britain (Q3 03) The Treasury’s assessment of the five economic tests to determine whether the UK should adopt the euro has had an unexpected benefit – five ideas for reform, admittedly not all new, to improve the... 27th June 2003 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus There’s life outside the euro Now that the UK has decided not to adopt the euro, attention will turn to the implications of this decision. Many studies in the last year or so have concluded that the UK has already missed out on a... 12th May 2003 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook The five tests for euro entry: pass or fail? (Q2 03) In a few months, the Treasury will complete its assessment of the five economic tests for UK adoption of the single currency. Should the tests be passed, a referendum could follow in the autumn and we... 30th March 2003 · 1 min read
