Europe Economic Outlook European recovery has plenty of momentum (Q1 07) The European economy has begun the new year in good health. Euro-zone GDP expanded at its fastest rate for six years in 2006 and most forward-looking indicators suggest that growth is set to remain... 26th February 2007 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus When will ECB rates no longer be "low"? The European Central Bank’s stance that euro-zone interest rates are still “low” suggests that it might have to raise them significantly further to contain inflation. But the existence of some spare... 20th February 2007 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Can the euro-zone investment boom continue? Recent strong increases in euro-zone investment have been at odds with the continued weakness of consumer spending. But positive conditions in the corporate sector suggest that firms have not over... 6th February 2007 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Surprise hike by Norges Bank and plenty more to come Today’s surprise hike in interest rates by the Norges Bank lifts the official rate by 25bps to 3.75% andreopens a positive interest rate differential with the euro-zone for the first time in three... 24th January 2007 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Slovenia: A role model for Emerging Europe? On 1st January next year, Slovenia will make history by becoming the first of new EU member states to join the euro. But while the short-term prospects for the Slovenian economy look good, slow... 15th December 2006 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB signals further rate hikes to come Today’s decision by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to raise the target mid-point for the 3 month Libor by 25bps to 2.0% came as no surprise whatsoever. After all, the press statement accompanying its... 14th December 2006 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus German VAT hike won't derail the economy There have been widespread fears that the imminent increase in VAT in Germany will bring the recent recovery in the euro-zone’s most important economy to a grinding halt. But an examination of... 13th December 2006 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank signals next move likely to be March The Norges Bank hiked interest rates by 25bps to 3.5% today. This marks the seventh step in thetightening cycle which began in June 2005 and keeps rates tidily in line with those of the euro-zone.(See... 13th December 2006 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus What will close the inflation gap? The last time the headline and core rates of consumer price inflation in the euro-zone diverged as they have over the last two years, it was a sharp rise in core inflation which eventually closed the... 29th November 2006 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is the euro-zone labour market about to hit the buffers? Estimates of the sustainable rate of unemployment suggest that the euro-zone labour market could be about to hit capacity constraints. But we think that the labour market recovery has plenty further... 1st November 2006 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank signals significant further tightening The Norges Bank hiked interest rates by 25bps to 3.25% today. This marks the sixth step in the tightening cycle which began in August 2005 and keeps rates tidily in line with those of the euro-zone.... 1st November 2006 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is the Euro-zone recovery sustainable? If our forecasts of a major slowdown in the US economy prove to be correct, then one crucial issue for the global economy is whether other parts of the world can compensate. With the euro-zone... 26th October 2006 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How hard will higher interest rates hit Ireland? The Irish economy looks likely to be one of the heaviest sufferers from the upward trend in eurozone interest rates. As such, the consensus view that Irish economic growth will barely slow over the... 18th September 2006 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB continues to remove monetary stimulus It came as no surprise at all that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) today raised rates by a further 25bps (bringing the mid-point of its target range for the three month Libor to 1.75%). After all, the... 14th September 2006 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is Spain heading for a hard landing? Spain has enjoyed one of the fastest rates of expansion in the euro-zone in recent years, thanks largely to rapid growth in domestic demand and, in particular, household spending. But several factors... 17th August 2006 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus The euro’s appreciation: who will suffer most? We expect the Netherlands, Ireland and Finland to feel the strongest impact on GDP growth from the euro’s appreciation. In France too, it seems possible that movements in the euro could stop the... 31st July 2006 · 1 min read
