Europe Chart Pack Fiscal crisis starting to weigh on confidence Markets’ continued concern about the euro-zone fiscal outlook has prompted the euro to depreciate further and peripheral government bond yields to remain high over the past month. Worryingly, there... 9th June 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production/Trade & French Trade (Apr.) April’s rise in German industrial production provides hope that the recovery in the wider economy is gaining momentum. But with fiscal policy in Germany and elsewhere set to be tightened dramatically... 8th June 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Sustained rises in Dutch office vacancy rates will impact rental values To date, Dutch office rental values have proved remarkably resilient to the sharp spike in vacancy rates. Yet, with demand still weakening and new supply still running at uncomfortably high levels, if... 8th June 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone banks back in the spotlight The past week’s data have added to concerns that strains in the region’s periphery are spreading to broader economic activity. While business sentiment remains consistent with a continued recovery for... 7th June 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q1) The second euro-zone GDP release for Q1 confirms that domestic spending remains weak and with fiscal tightening set to intensify, there is little prospect of an improvement any time soon. 4th June 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spain faces an uphill battle to ease markets’ fears The latest ratings downgrade of Spanish Government debt has triggered a new wave of concern in the markets. While Spain’s problems are far less acute than those of Greece, the Government still faces a... 3rd June 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Apr.) & Final PMI (May) April’s drop in euro-zone retail sales brought more worrying evidence of the weakness of the consumer sector even before fiscal tightening really kicks in. 3rd June 2010 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Resisting full-blown QE... for now After making radical changes to unconventional policy just a few weeks ago, further alterations seem unlikely this month. The ECB will give little away about the size and type of future bond purchases... 3rd June 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Belgium: The weak link of the North Fears that Belgium might be the ‘Greece of the North’ have not yet been picked up by the markets. (See Chart 1.) But with persisting weaknesses in the banking sector and a renewed bout of political... 2nd June 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone PPI (Apr.)/Spanish Unemp. & Con. Conf. (May) April’s sharp rise in euro-zone producer price inflation may prompt concerns that inflationary pressures are building. But we continue to think that deflation, rather than a surge in inflation is the... 2nd June 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update What caused Belgian industrial rents to plunge in Q1? The sharp fall in Belgian industrial rental values in Q1 was probably just a delayed response to the depth of the recession. In any event, we expect the Belgian economy to grow a little faster than... 2nd June 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swiss GDP (Q1) The Swiss economy is recovering a little more slowly than had been hoped, but it continues to easily outperform the euro-zone. The key risk now is that close trade links to the region and a strong... 1st June 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone & German Unemployment (Apr./May) April’s further rise in euro-zone unemployment adds to evidence that domestic demand in the region looks set to remain weak. 1st June 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Markets' gloom could soon hit households and firms Recent market developments, coupled with the prospect of a prolonged bout of fiscal consolidation, appear to be starting to have a damaging impact on confidence in the wider euro-zone economy. In the... 31st May 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swedish GDP (Q1) The sharp increase in Swedish activity in Q1, coupled with large upward revisions to growth in the preceding quarters, suggests that the Riksbank may bring forward its plans to raise interest rates in... 28th May 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Bank levy squabbles don’t bode well for fiscal union A bank levy along the lines of that recently proposed by the European Commission seems unlikely to alter banks’ behaviour or the state of European public finances dramatically. But the difficulty in... 27th May 2010 · 1 min read
