Europe Economics Focus How hard will it rain in Spain? Most commentators are agreed that the Spanish economy is heading for a slowdown. But we think the “consensus” forecast of a relatively soft landing is too optimistic. We expect a major downturn in the... 14th February 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank raises rates to 4.25% The surprise decision by the Swedish Riksbank to raise interest rates from 4.0% to 4.25% today confirmed that it remains concerned about the outlook for inflation. And with its latest interest rate... 13th February 2008 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank raises rates to 4.25% The surprise decision by the Swedish Riksbank to raise interest rates from 4.0% to 4.25% today confirmed that it remains concerned about the outlook for inflation. And with its latest interest rate... 13th February 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update France won't succumb to pressure to reduce deficit The latest pressure on the French government to bring its finances into order is unlikely to alter its fiscal plans in the near term. Indeed, with tough talk from other euro-zone ministers confirming... 12th February 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB starts to soften While the European Central Bank declined to follow the Fed and Bank of England in cutting interest rates today, tentative signs of a softening in its previously stubbornly hawkish stance support our... 7th February 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Activity slips into rate-cutting territory The news on the euro-zone economy has continued to weaken in the early weeks of 2008. Most strikingly, the composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) has slipped to levels which, on some previous... 6th February 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Economic weakness highlights downside property risks (Feb 09) The latest data suggest that the required adjustment in commercial property yields in the euro-zone continued in 2008Q4. But the outlook for occupier markets deteriorated, reinforcing our belief that... 5th February 2008 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Interest rates heading for 3.0%, eventually The ECB is likely to maintain a hawkish stance at February’s Governing Council meeting and press conference, denting hopes that it might cut interest rates within a couple of months. But with the... 31st January 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Swedish interest rate expectations have fallen too far The Swedish economy has slowed in recent months, but with inflationary pressures still alive and kicking we expect the Riksbank’s response to be less aggressive than markets anticipate. Indeed, we... 30th January 2008 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swedish interest rate expectations have fallen too far The Swedish economy has slowed in recent months, but with inflationary pressures still alive and kicking we expect the Riksbank’s response to be less aggressive than markets anticipate. Indeed, we... 30th January 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Fiscal policy won't cushion the euro-zone Recent calls (most notably from IMF head Dominique Strauss-Kahn) for governments to use fiscal policy to support their economies beg the question of whether the euro-zone might benefit from such... 29th January 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italian political crisis another blow to slowing economy The latest political crisis in Italy is unlikely to have a major impact on the markets or the economy itself. Nonetheless, at a time when consumer confidence is already slumping, the additional... 25th January 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Can Europe weather the storm? (Q1 08) After two years of rapid expansion, the European economy is set to slow sharply in 2008 in response to the combination of weakening global activity, previous increases in interest rates, tighter... 24th January 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB to cut rates to 3.0% We argued back in December that expectations that the ECB would raise interest rates this year would prove to be wrong. With economic activity in the region continuing to cool and other central banks... 23rd January 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Outlook remains bleak for the Spanish housing market The latest Spanish house price data revealed that house prices rose solidly in Q4 last year. Nonetheless, other indicators of housing market activity are much less healthy and we continue to expect... 18th January 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How are German consumers feeling? Recent surveys of consumer sentiment have suggested that German consumers are in schizophrenic mood. While they remain pretty upbeat about the economic outlook, they have yet to translate that into... 15th January 2008 · 1 min read
