Europe Economics Update Sarkozy one year on In the year since his election, French President Nicolas Sarkozy has failed to live up to the French public’s great expectations, but he has achieved more than he is given credit for. Provided that he... 6th May 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro not about to collapse Speculation is growing that the euro’s extended rally against the US dollar and UK pound is finally at an end. But with the euro-zone economy in fundamentally better shape than those of the US and UK... 2nd May 2008 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Rate cuts still some months away We expect the lack of a significant softening in the ECB’s hawkish tone at May’s press conference to confirm that the Bank is unlikely to cut interest rates for some months yet. But as the economy... 1st May 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Major economies diverging as growth slows (Q2 08) The outlook for the European economy remains relatively bright compared to the major downturn underway in the US. Nonetheless, divergences are widening between those economies subject to US-style... 30th April 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Inflation concerns to delay the ECB The European Central Bank’s continued hawkishness suggests that euro-zone interest rates are now unlikely to fall before the third quarter of this year at the earliest. But we still think rates will... 24th April 2008 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swedish and Norwegian interest rates should have peaked As expected, the Swedish Riksbank kept interest rates on hold today while the Norges Bank raised rates to 5.50%. But while the markets apparently see little chance of rates falling in 2008, we expect... 23rd April 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spain’s fiscal boost won’t offset the housing market downturn The latest news on the Spanish housing market supports our view that it is only a matter of time before house prices fall sharply with significant adverse effects on the wider economy. 18th April 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Housing and the credit crunch in Europe There are growing concerns that the credit crunch could trigger a sharp downturn in European housing markets with significant adverse effects on the wider economy. But while euro-zone house price... 17th April 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Berlusconi’s victory unlikely to ease Italy’s woes Silvio Berlusconi’s emphatic victory in the Italian general election ends two months of political uncertainty. But the deteriorating economic outlook and Berlusconi’s poor past stewardship of the... 15th April 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB still talking tough After leaving interest rates unchanged for a tenth consecutive month today, the European Central Bank maintained a tough stance on inflation. But with the economy clearly slowing and the Bank hinting... 10th April 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Country-level divergences widening Recent data have provided reassurance that, in comparison to the US and UK, the euro-zone is experiencing a relatively moderate slowdown in activity. But there are growing signs of a north-south... 9th April 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How worried should we be about German banks? The recent stream of write-downs by German banks might look like a worrying sign that the crisis in financial markets is set to have a devastating impact on the economy. But there are a number of... 8th April 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Ireland: After the party… Recent news on the Irish economy has supported our view that expectations of a relatively soft landing after the boom of the last decade are too optimistic. We now expect the economy to grow by just 1... 3rd April 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Slump in Spanish business surveys raises risk of recession The sharp fall in the latest indicators of Spanish business activity provides further evidence that the economic slowdown has spread well beyond the housing-related sectors. We maintain our view that... 3rd April 2008 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Not ready to signal rate cut The ECB seems likely to maintain a hawkish tone at April’s Governing Council meeting and press conference, suggesting that it has no immediate plans to cut interest rates. But as the economy slows... 3rd April 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank signals the possibility of a further rate rise The Norges Bank’s decision to leave interest rates on hold but signal that it expects to raise interest rates once more this year is likely to lead to a further strengthening of the krone. 13th March 2008 · 1 min read
