Europe Economics Update ECB set to disappoint markets in the near term Interest rate expectations in the euro-zone have fallen sharply along with those elsewhere in recent weeks and are now pricing in a strong chance of an ECB rate cut this year. While we think that talk... 17th September 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German political re-shuffle reduces chance of tax cuts The latest changes to the leadership of Germany’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) probably bode well for long-term structural reform of the economy. But they also further reduce the chance of near-term... 8th September 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB still fretting over inflation outlook The European Central Bank’s hawkish tone at today’s press conference confirmed that interest rate cuts are not yet on the agenda. But we still expect slowing activity and falling energy inflation to... 4th September 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank signals that interest rates have peaked The decision by the Riksbank to raise interest rates from 4.50% to 4.75% clearly shows that it remains concerned about the emergence of ”second-round inflation” effects. But while the Bank did signal... 4th September 2008 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank signals that interest rates have peaked The decision by the Riksbank to raise interest rates from 4.50% to 4.75% clearly shows that it remains concerned about the emergence of ”second-round inflation” effects. But while the Bank did signal... 4th September 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB unlikely to rip up the lending rulebook Thursday’s ECB press conference provides the Bank with a chance to provide greater details about any proposed changes to its collateral requirements for lending in its open market operations. While we... 3rd September 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Inflation starting to fall Euro-zone consumer price inflation has finally begun to fall, slipping from 4.0% to 3.8% in August. If the oil price remains at current levels, falling energy inflation alone should knock at least 1.5... 3rd September 2008 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Staff forecasts to highlight weaker growth prospects Mounting evidence of a sharp slowdown in eurozone economic activity has caused the chances of another interest rate hike to evaporate. But the ECB is still deeply concerned about upside risks to... 28th August 2008 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB’s optimism likely to prove misplaced Upbeat comments from Swiss National Bank Chairman Jean-Pierre Roth in this morning’s press are atodds with our own view. While it is true that some aspects of the Swiss economy appear robust fornow... 19th August 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Weaker euro-zone economy to dent UK exports The recent weakening in the outlook for the euro-zone economy – the destination for around half of the UK’s exports – suggests that there is a risk that activity in the UK will be even weaker than the... 14th August 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spanish house prices to fall by 25% The recent run of terrible economic news from Spain and the sharp falls in house prices in a number of other developed economies have led us to revise down our forecast for Spanish house prices. We... 13th August 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus French consumers – slowdown, not slump Recent data on the French household sector have flattened hopes that healthy consumer spending growth would prevent a sharp economic slowdown. With inflation soaring, consumer confidence at a record... 12th August 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Sun not about to set on Greece Recent news from Greece has provided some encouraging signs that it is escaping the economic slowdown which now appears to be engulfing the other Club-Med economies. 11th August 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB on hold for some months yet Comments from the European Central Bank have retained a relatively hawkish tone, suggesting that it will be some time before the Bank is prepared to bolster the flagging economy with interest rate... 7th August 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Recession risks mounting The latest data from the euro-zone suggest that the economy is at risk of entering a technical recession. Leaked information revealing that the German economy contracted by around 1.0% q/q in Q2... 6th August 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone could be first to enter recession Our view that the euro-zone economy would fare relatively well in the global downturn has been undermined by the latest news on Germany and the deterioration in the business surveys. It now looks... 6th August 2008 · 1 min read
