Would euro break-up trigger a Lehman-style global crisis?

Our working assumption is that there will only be a limited break-up of the euro-zone, with Greece and one or two other smaller countries leaving this year or next but policy-makers managing the process sufficiently well to keep the rest of the union together. The global damage should then be much less than that which followed the collapse of Lehmans and, over time, there may even be some positives. Nonetheless, the fall-out need not be anywhere near as bad as that in 2008-09 in order to cause substantial further harm to the global economy and asset prices. And even if a more disorderly outcome can be avoided – which is far from assured – the heightened uncertainty could persist for years.