Europe Economics Update ECB hawkish for now, but next move will be down M. Trichet’s hawkish tone at today’s press conference confirmed that the ECB is unlikely to follow other major central banks in cutting interest rates in the near future. However, a further slowdown... 10th January 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German wage negotiations not a major threat to inflation Wage negotiations begin in Germany today between employers and the services and public sector unions Ver.di and DBB. The unions’ demands for an 8% pay rise have raised concerns over the buildup of a... 10th January 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update DAX outperformance no longer supported by economics The outperformance of the German equity market relative to its European neighbours like France no longer appears to be supported by the latest economic indicators. 9th January 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spanish inflation to squeeze household spending Spanish CPI inflation surged to 4.3% in December, its highest rate in over 12 years. The widespread system of indexing wage settlements to inflation in Spain should ultimately protect workers’ incomes... 3rd January 2008 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Hawkish stance to soften in H2 Concerns about the inflation outlook in the eurozone are likely to keep the ECB firmly in hawkish mood in the early months of 2008. But slowing activity, falling overseas interest rates and the... 3rd January 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Inflation worries boost interest rate expectations The recent combination of rising inflation, hawkish signals from the ECB and some fall in interbank interest rates has led the markets to price back in a significant chance of a final rise in interest... 3rd January 2008 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB likely to stay on hold for some time The SNB was never likely to shock markets with an interest rate hike today, particularly in the current environment of uncertainty. While the Bank seems to have maintained a slight tightening bias, we... 13th December 2007 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank’s tightening cycle not yet over The Norges Bank’s decision to raise interest rates today for the third time since the beginning of thefinancial market turmoil is in stark contrast to the actions of some other central banks. Given... 12th December 2007 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How far will the ECB lag behind? The markets and most forecasters believe that the European Central Bank will sit on its hands and leave euro-zone interest rates unchanged throughout 2008 while the US Fed and UK MPC both loosen... 5th December 2007 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How far can the euro-zone de-couple from the US? The European and US economies have moved closely together over recent decades, with most major slowdowns in the US followed by an even deeper or more protracted downturn in Europe. But there are some... 3rd December 2007 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus What has the euro done for the euro-zone? The euro cannot be blamed for relatively weak economic growth in the euro-zone, or for the region’s difficulties competing in international markets. But neither has it brought the vast benefits that... 29th November 2007 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Core inflation dangers greater this time? Rising food and energy prices look set to prompt another period of high headline inflation in the euro-zone like that seen between 2004 and 2006. But with the economy operating closer to capacity, the... 15th November 2007 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Recovery at a crossroads (Q4 07) The economic recovery in Europe has reached a critical juncture. The general lack of the imbalances which look set to constrain growth in the US and UK over the next year or two suggests that the... 5th November 2007 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank strikes a more dovish tone Today’s decision by the Norges Bank to keep interest rates on hold and to lower its projection for the future path of rates could lead to a renewed weakening of the krone following the strengthening... 31st October 2007 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is stronger euro-zone productivity growth here to stay? The evidence suggests that the recent pick-up in euro-zone productivity growth was probably a temporary reflection of the cyclical strength of the economy rather than a permanent or structural... 22nd October 2007 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank continues tightening cycle Today’s decision by the Norges Bank to raise interest rates for a second time since the turmoil in the financial markets is another demonstration that central banks are likely to remain focused on the... 26th September 2007 · 1 min read
