Europe Economics Focus Is Italy Europe’s ticking time-bomb? Perennially weak growth and a mountain of government debt mean that the Italian public finances are a potential time-bomb waiting to explode. Indeed, we think the size of the Governments debts will... 5th July 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Banking strains won’t ease soon On the face of it, there were some encouraging signs last week that the euro-zone banking system is becoming less reliant on the ECB for funding and is switching to borrowing from more conventional... 5th July 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment & Producer prices (May) May’s euro-zone unemployment figures highlight the growing divergences between the core and peripheral euro-zone economies and add to evidence that the latter group’s economic woes are far from over. 2nd July 2010 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swedish Riksbank begins monetary policy tightening The widely predicted interest rate hike by the Swedish Riksbank from 0.25% to 0.5% made it thesecond western European central bank to tighten interest rates during the current cycle. But withother... 1st July 2010 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Pledging support for troubled banks With concerns about the euro-zone banking sector growing again, markets will be hoping for reassurance that the ECB will continue to provide ample liquidity. At the same time, the ECB is likely to... 1st July 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Swedish Riksbank begins monetary policy tightening The widely predicted interest rate hike by the Swedish Riksbank from 0.25% to 0.5% made it the second western European central bank to tighten interest rates during the current cycle. But with other... 1st July 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Mixed economic growth prospects point to divergent property returns (Vol 2 2010) The euro-zone commercial property market outlook has been clouded by the sovereign debt crisis, but some markets are more exposed than others. Our latest forecasts envisage a growing divergence among... 1st July 2010 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Developed non-euro-zone markets offer the best risk/reward trade-off (Vol 2 2010) Since the previous Analyst, we have become a little more optimistic about the outlook for commercial property returns in 2010 and 2011. This mainly reflects the fact that, although the economic and... 1st July 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Ireland GDP (Q1) Ireland exited recession with a bang in Q1, suggesting that the impact of fiscal tightening there and in the rest of the periphery may be less than generally feared. But the improving outlook largely... 30th June 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI & German Unemployment (Jun.) June’s euro-zone CPI data confirm that price pressures are very subdued. And while the continued fall in German unemployment brings hope of a modest consumer recovery there, it will not be strong... 30th June 2010 · 1 min read
Pace of economic recovery to soften in 2011 (Vol 2 2010) In the euro-zone, GDP growth in most economies looks set to slow in 2011 as domestic demand remains insipid and fiscal policy is tightened. Germany and France are expected to be among the strongest... 30th June 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Jun.) June’s small increase in the EC measure of euro-zone economic sentiment is a relief after falls in other surveys lately. But it still points to only a modest recovery in the region as a whole, with... 29th June 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) May’s euro-zone money supply and bank lending figures suggest that banks remain in no mood to lend, highlighting the need for the ECB to maintain its unconventional policy support measures. 28th June 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone divergences widening Last week’s news on the euro-zone economy was fairly downbeat and suggested that divergences within the region have continued to widen. Germany, in particular, still seems to be benefitting from the... 28th June 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Are the euro-zone austerity measures working? Recent data on the public finances suggest that the euro-zone peripheral governments are broadly on track to meet their ambitious fiscal targets for 2010. But these governments still face an enormous... 25th June 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German consumers becoming more willing to spend? The recent sharp rise in German consumers’ willingness to buy brings hope that announced fiscal austerity measures have not so far led households to abandon spending plans. But the weakness of... 23rd June 2010 · 1 min read
