Europe Economics Weekly Euro support fading Recent developments support our view that the euro will come under renewed downward pressure in the coming months. With concerns about Greece mounting, economic prospects deteriorating compared to the... 18th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spanish house prices have further to fall The latest Spanish housing market data suggest that the residential property downturn continued to ease in the latter part of 2009. Nonetheless, we think that house prices still have much further to... 15th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade Bal. (Nov.) & Final CPI (Dec.) November’s fall in euro-zone exports could signal that the strong euro is beginning to take its toll on exporters. Nonetheless, in Q4 at least, the external sector is likely to have continued to... 15th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB holds its line There were no surprises from the ECB today as it waits to judge the impact of previously announced plans to phase out its emergency lending to banks. But the Bank’s cautious tone on the economic... 14th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Nov.) November’s strong gain in euro-zone industrial production suggested that the sector is still coping fairly well with the euro’s strength. But industrial activity still looks unlikely to boost the... 14th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Focus Is European commercial property fairly valued? We think that the UK, French and Polish markets seem undervalued by about 10% to 20%, while the Belgian and German markets look to be around fair value. The Finnish, Hungarian, Italian, Spanish and... 13th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Core inflation pressures still very subdued December’s rise in euro-zone CPI inflation, from 0.5% to 0.9%, left it at a ten-month high. But the increase was due to a further rise in energy inflation, which should soon begin to moderate... 12th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is Portugal the next Greece? Recent suggestions that Portugal may be “the next Greece” overlook the fact that Portugal’s economic and fiscal position is fundamentally healthier. Still, this month’s budget may need to reveal... 12th January 2010 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB may struggle to prevent further franc gains The Swiss National Bank’s assurance that it will intervene to prevent the franc from appreciating too much further is encouraging. But intervention now might not be as successful as in the recent past... 11th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update SNB may struggle to prevent further franc gains The Swiss National Bank’s assurance that it will intervene to prevent the franc from appreciating too much further is encouraging. But intervention now might not be as successful as in the recent past... 11th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly New Year challenges for the euro-zone For some time, we have been fairly optimistic about the prospects for the euro-zone in 2010. Nonetheless, the outlook remains highly uncertain and there are several risks which could derail the... 11th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production & EZ Unemployment (Nov.) November’s renewed increase in German industrial production is a welcome sign that the recovery there is back on track. But with unemployment still rising in the euro-zone as a whole, it could be some... 8th January 2010 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Gently does it After outlining the start of its exit strategy last month, we doubt that the ECB will announce any further changes at the forthcoming meeting. The Bank might increase the interest rate on its... 7th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Euro-zone retail rental values will fall everywhere in 2010 The latest fall in euro-zone retail sales confirmed that the wider economic recovery has not yet spread to the consumer sector, despite nine consecutive monthly rises in consumer confidence. And, as... 7th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Dec.) & Retail Sales (Nov.) December’s rise in the EC measure of euro-zone economic sentiment was fairly encouraging. Unfortunately, though, November’s fall in retail sales confirmed that the recovery has yet to reach the... 7th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How much will fiscal tightening hurt Europe? Greeces troubles have highlighted the need for decisive fiscal consolidation in at least parts of the euro-zone. This need not be as aggressive as in the UK or US, but could still knock over 0.5% off... 7th January 2010 · 1 min read
