Europe Economics Update Spain: are cracks starting to show? For now, markets continue to give Spain the benefit of the doubt. But with signs that its modest economic recovery will soon lose momentum and increasing concerns that the regional governments will... 18th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Can Portugal push away debt restructuring fears? Portugal’s bail-out has finally been given the green light. While a cash crisis has been avoided, there are reasons to think that Portugal may struggle to push away fears that it will eventually need... 17th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Weak performance outside the core The increasing divergence between the euro-zone’s core and peripheral economies are now clearly evident in the performance of commercial property markets. In contrast to the core, there is no... 17th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW (May) May’s fall in the headline ZEW index adds to evidence that the German economic recovery may be starting to slow. 17th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Greek default - causes and effects The markets are right to think that a likely second bail-out for Greece over the coming months will not preclude some form of debt restructuring or default. But we suspect that they are too sanguine... 16th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone CPI (Final, Apr.) & Trade (Mar.) April’s sharp rise in core inflation is probably not as worrying as it may seem, but it will do nothing to ease the ECB’s inflation concerns, suggesting that the Bank may raise interest rates again in... 16th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Strong surface hides widening cracks The solid 0.8% gain in euro-zone GDP in Q1 has left our previous forecast of 1.0% growth in 2011 overall looking too downbeat. We have pushed it up to 1.5%, but an even stronger figure of 2.0% or so... 16th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Cracks between euro-zone core and peripheral markets widen Today’s euro-zone GDP data will do nothing to boost investor sentiment towards commercial property in the region’s troubled peripheral economies. Rather it supports forecasts that the gap between... 13th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q1) Q1’s 0.8% gain in euro-zone GDP has got the year off to a solid start and we have revised our full-year growth forecast up from 1.0% to 1.5%. But with the divergences in the region still widening... 13th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Mar.) March’s euro-zone industrial production figures add to evidence that the recovery in the sector is starting to lose a bit of steam. This supports our view that GDP growth is likely to be pretty... 12th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update German industrial recovery still insufficient to trigger rental growth This morning’s German trade balance data, together with last week’s production data, suggest that Germany’s industrial recovery still has plenty of momentum. Yet, the strong recovery seen so far has... 9th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What next for Greece? European officials have bowed to the inevitable and accepted the need to extend Greece’s bail-out package. But we still think that it is inevitable that Greece will have to restructure its debts at... 9th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Will the Portuguese bail-out work? It is not surprising that the positive market reaction to the initial details of Portugal’s package last week was short-lived. On the face of it, the bail-out may turn out to be more successful than... 9th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Mar.) March’s German industrial production figures add to other signs that the wider economy made a strong start to the year. But there is growing evidence that the industrial recovery may have started to... 6th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Spanish GDP (Bank of Spain Estimate, Q1) Initial estimates of Spanish GDP growth in Q1 suggest that the economy continued to expand at the start of this year, but only just. There remains a risk of a “double dip”, which could prompt Spain to... 6th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB softens its stance slightly Having kept interest rates unchanged at 1.25% as expected, President Trichet’s comments in the press conference appeared to provide tentative support to the view that the ECB is not about to embark on... 5th May 2011 · 1 min read
