Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey & German Unemployment (Jan.) January’s improvement in the EC euro-zone consumer and business survey was somewhat reassuring after the weaker tone of some of the recent other surveys. But we will need to see a sharper rise in... 28th January 2010 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Benign inflation outlook to keep rates on hold The ECB meeting on February 4th is likely to be uneventful, with interest rates on hold and no significant change to existing plans to gradually phase out unconventional support for the banking sector... 28th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is Greece really so much worse? The recent blow-out in Greek Government bond spreads seems to over-do the depth of its fiscal problems compared to those of other crisis economies like Ireland. But Greece has clearly lost the markets... 28th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Consumer Prices (1st Est. Jan.) January’s fall in German consumer price inflation confirmed that households’ real incomes are being squeezed by much less than those elsewhere by rising prices. And inflation looks set to remain very... 27th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update RICS survey upbeat on investment market, but not on rental values The RICS Global Commercial Property Survey released today confirmed that investment market activity in Western Europe rose in 2009Q4. It also indicated that the investment market recovery will be... 27th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Portugal’s Budget won’t dispel market worries The markets and credit rating agencies had been looking to yesterday’s budget for confirmation that the Portuguese Government is prepared to follow other fiscally strained euro-zone economies in... 27th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Jan.) & French Consumer Spending (Dec.) January’s sharper than expected increase in German Ifo business sentiment came as a relief after the deterioration in some other surveys lately. The rise in the composite Business Climate Index, from... 26th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will a delay in German tax cuts prevent the recovery? Hints from the German Government that promised income tax cuts could be put off until at least next year make a convincing consumer revival seem even less likely. But we still expect a relatively... 25th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Improvement in industry will be slow to feed through to rents The rise in industrial orders and production in the euro-zone in November is encouraging news for industrial property. However, with ample spare capacity in the sector, and the outlook for consumer... 25th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone escapes inflation fears The recent sharp rise in CPI inflation in both the US and the UK has caused concern that interest rate hikes might not be far off. But euro-zone inflation has been far more subdued, challenging the... 25th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Fiscal worries cloud the outlook (Q1 2010) Europe’s economies have continued to benefit from the improvement in the global environment, but there are still major uncertainties over the likely strength and sustainability of the upturn in the... 21st January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jan.) January’s small fall in the euro-zone composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) supports the message from Tuesday’s ZEW survey that the recovery might be losing momentum. 21st January 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Can euro-zone accession rescue Emerging Europe? As Eastern Europe limps out of recession, enthusiasm for euro accession appears to be building. In a speech yesterday, Hungarian PM Gordon Bajnai said that his country should adopt the euro ‘as soon... 20th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW (Jan.) January’s fall in German ZEW investor sentiment confirmed that confidence in the recovery remains fragile. We still see the German economy expanding by a pretty healthy 2.0% this year, but the... 19th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Norway: property outlook bright, but beware of downside risks We think that commercial property returns in Norway will be higher over the next few years than anywhere else in Western Europe. This Update elaborates on our thinking and also highlights some of the... 19th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Divergence in investor and occupier markets to continue We expect the divergence between the investor market and the occupier market, which started to appear in 2009, to continue in 2010. Initial data suggest that, although still low by historical... 18th January 2010 · 1 min read
