Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Dec.) December’s euro-zone unemployment figures revealed a further increase that will add to the downward pressure on consumer spending in the coming months. 31st January 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Fresh falls in Spanish retail rents lie ahead Over the past year, retail rental values have bucked the downward trend still evident in Spanish office and industrial rental values. But data showing that unemployment surpassed the 5 million mark in... 30th January 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Jan.) & Spanish GDP (Q4) January’s improvement in the EC’s euro-zone business and consumer surveys is something of a relief, but the headline index still points to a renewed recession. 30th January 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Could Germany yet save the euro? Worries about the Greek debt deal were offset last week by greater optimism towards Germany. Not only were there further signs of a pick-up in the economy, but Angela Merkel hinted that she would be... 30th January 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) Recent monetary data have revealed that the ECB’s generous lending has helped to reduce strains in interbank markets to some extent. However, money and credit growth have weakened further. 27th January 2012 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Falling capital values to dent total returns Events in the euro-zone will act as a drag on property markets throughout Europe. As a result, most non-euro-zone commercial property markets will suffer some renewed falls in capital values this year... 26th January 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook On the cusp of a fresh downturn The recovery in capital values seen in most euro-zone property markets over the past year or so, looks set to be reversed in 2012. As the economy slides back into a deep recession, occupier demand... 26th January 2012 · 1 min read
Euro-zone departures to exacerbate the downturn The euro-zone stands on the brink of a deep recession which will encompass all member states. Emerging European economies have less scope to loosen policy in response to a drop in euro-zone output... 25th January 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global growth prospects - where we differ from consensus As the IMF released its latest forecasts yesterday and we published our Global Economic Outlook last week, this seems a good time to take stock of how our forecasts compare with others. Overall... 25th January 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Jan) January’s rise in the German Ifo index suggests that the economy is holding up relatively well, but activity is nowhere near strong enough to provide a meaningful boost to the euro-zone’s periphery. 25th January 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Market implications of an EMU break-up Risky asset markets have generally made a bright start to 2012. But our central scenario envisages a break-up of EMU this year initially involving Greece’s departure, an outcome that would presumably... 24th January 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jan.) January’s increase in the euro-zone composite PMI is certainly an encouraging sign, but the survey still suggests that the region is in recession. 24th January 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Greek debt deal won’t eliminate break-up risks The Greek government appears to be close to agreeing a deal with bond-holders which should both reduce its debt burden and ensure that it gets its second bail-out in time to finance the redemption of... 23rd January 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Has the best for the German office market passed? All the headline indicators for the German office market, i.e. take-up, vacancy rates and rents, moved in the right direction last year. But we expect the final stages of 2011 to prove to be the high... 19th January 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Debt deal will not end Greece’s problems Media reports suggest that Greece may be on the brink of agreeing a debt restructuring deal with private sector creditors. But while this might reduce the chance of a near-term disorderly default... 19th January 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Jan.) & Euro-zone Final CPI (Dec.) January’s sharp monthly rise in the German ZEW index is certainly an encouraging sign, but the index still points to tough times ahead. 17th January 2012 · 1 min read
