Europe Commercial Property Update Are Spanish retail yields especially vulnerable to a correction? In recent years, the spread between Spanish retail and office yields has switched from positive to negative. This is typical in other countries and also squares with the long-run outperformance by... 13th December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB’s silver bullet turns out to be a blank At their summit last week, euro-zone leaders agreed on the basics of a new “fiscal compact” which should help to reduce the risks that another debt crisis such as that seen over the last two years is... 12th December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Focus What will a break-up mean for euro-zone commercial property? The economic and financial market dislocations that will arise from a break-up of the euro-zone will have severe, negative consequences for euro-zone commercial property markets. Indeed, we think that... 9th December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB shatters hopes of a "silver bullet" While the ECB met expectations of a further cut in interest rates and greater support for banks today, it shattered hopes that it is about to fire a silver bullet into the heart of the debt crisis. 8th December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Entering another deep recession Hopes that euro-zone policymakers will hatch a new “grand plan” to save the euro-zone may have grown, but evidence is mounting that the region is on the cusp of another deep recession. In November... 8th December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Markets’ euro optimism to prove short-lived again It is not hard to see why the financial markets have responded positively to the latest proposals to save the euro: they seem to open the door to immediate financial help from the ECB and provide a... 7th December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italian prospects remain grim Recent euro-zone developments may have brought Italy back from the brink again. But Italy will still need years of financial assistance from the rest of the region and to go through years of severe... 7th December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & Italian Industrial Production (Oct.) October’s German and Italian industrial production data do little to alter the likelihood that the euro-zone has fallen back into recession in the fourth quarter. 7th December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP Breakdown (Q3) The breakdown of euro-zone Q3 GDP does nothing to alter our view that the region is on the brink of another deep recession. 6th December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Markets gamble on the ECB The financial markets seem to be gambling that the European Central Bank and Germany are bluffing when they say they are not about to come to the euro’s rescue. But given the obstacles still in the... 5th December 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What would a euro-zone break-up mean for China’s markets? Policy stimulus is usually positive for Chinese equities but if it comes against a backdrop of a euro-zone break-up, gains are likely to be relatively low. In these circumstances, we would also expect... 2nd December 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Growing divergence between US and euro-zone manufacturing November’s purchasing managers’ surveys suggest the euro-zone is sinking into an even deeper recession even while the US manufacturing sector has strengthened. 1st December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro break-up will leave no country unscathed We expect a limited form of euro-zone break-up in the next two years to cause widespread economic disruption across the region. And with recent indicators already pointing to recession in a number of... 1st December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Clouds form over the Swedish retail market Q3’s plunge in Swedish consumer spending suggests that the outlook for the retail property market has deteriorated. Nevertheless, the low retail vacancy rate in Stockholm, together with strong demand... 1st December 2011 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Another rate cut, but no silver bullet The European Central Bank will respond to the growing evidence that the euro-zone economy is heading back into recession by cutting interest rates to 1% at its December 8th meeting. What’s more... 1st December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swiss GDP (Q3) Q3’s Swiss GDP figures confirmed that the economy is finally beginning to suffer from the franc’s strength. With the currency remaining strong and demand from the eurozone set to slump, the economy... 1st December 2011 · 1 min read
