Europe Economics Update Political uncertainty to push Italy deeper into recession The Italian economy’s dire end to 2012, combined with the growing likelihood of a long period of political deadlock, supports our long-held view that the consensus outlook for Italy is too optimistic... 28th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spain may still be the first to need OMTs While the euro-zone spotlight has recently switched to Italy, the latest economic news from Spain suggests that it might still be first to require the support of the ECB’s bond-buying programme. 28th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI & Unemployment (Feb.) February’s fall in German CPI inflation should ease fears of inflationary pressure in the euro-zone’s largest economy despite the continued fall in unemployment. 28th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Danish GDP (Q4) The Danish economy contracted sharply at the end of 2012 as both weak domestic demand and the euro-zone crisis weighed heavily on economic activity. 28th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swiss GDP (Q4 13) Swiss GDP data for Q4 confirmed that, while growth is clearly slowing, the economy has continued to outperform most others in Europe. But we expect the economy to stagnate this year as problems in the... 28th February 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Danish GDP (Q4 12) The Danish economy contracted sharply at the end of 2012 as both weak domestic demand and the euro-zone crisis weighed heavily on economic activity. 28th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Has the Italian election disabled the ECB’s bazooka? The renewed rise in Italian and other government bond yields following the inconclusive result of the Italian general election has raised questions over the continued effectiveness of the European... 27th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Feb.) February’s rise in the euro-zone EC Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) confirmed that sentiment was rising – before the Italian election. But the recent bout of market uncertainty may lead to renewed... 27th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) The latest euro-zone monetary data have brought further signs of an improvement in financial market conditions. However, lending to the private sector continued to contract and seems unlikely to... 27th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Feb. 13) Greece, Ireland and Portugal continued to make solid fiscal progress at the beginning of 2013. But Italy and Spain are likely to have missed their fiscal goals for 2012. 26th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Economic fundamentals point to softening German investment market Supported by a wider improvement in financial markets, investment demand for German commercial property surged in Q4 last year, despite the economy contracting sharply. But risk appetite looks to be... 26th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Norway’s housing boom won’t force rates higher Norway is in the midst of a long housing boom, but prices are not as over-valued as some valuation measures suggest. Given other downward risks to the economic outlook, we think that interest rates... 26th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Political deadlock could push Italy towards a bail-out The inconclusive outcome of the Italian election looks set to prompt a renewed bout of market pressure which may eventually force Italy to request a support package from the euro-zone. 26th February 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norway’s housing boom won’t force rates higher Norway is in the midst of a long housing boom, but prices are not as over-valued as some valuation measures suggest. Given other downward risks to the economic outlook, we think that interest rates... 26th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Has the EC softened its stance on austerity? Recent hints that the European Commission could grant further extensions to governments that are missing their deficit targets provide hope that the Commission will not force austerity regardless of... 25th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Exporters to the rescue? Last week’s data brought some encouraging signs that the euro-zone’s export sector is holding up surprisingly well in the face of the strong euro. Nonetheless, a major export revival appears unlikely... 25th February 2013 · 1 min read
