Europe Economics Weekly Crunch year for the euro-zone With the euro-zone debt crisis ending the year much deeper and broader than it started it, it seems unlikely that the next 12 months will see a repeat of the (just about) “muddling through” process... 22nd December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Have we underestimated Germany? The recent rise in some of the German business surveys has prompted optimistic media reports about Germany saving the euro-zone, acting as Santa, being a twinkling Christmas star in the euro-zone... 21st December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Italian GDP (Q3) Italy’s Q3 GDP figures add to evidence that the economy has probably already re-entered recession, despite the fact that the fiscal squeeze there has barely started. With the economy set to contract... 21st December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Lower property investment volumes in store for Europe in 2012 If we are right that all euro-zone member states will fall back into recession next year, commercial property investment volumes in the region are likely to be a major casualty. We would not be... 20th December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Swedish Riksbank cuts rates and more likely to come The Swedish Riksbank’s decision to reduce interest rates is a timely reminder that even the strongest performing European economies are not immune from the effects of the euro-zone debt crisis. We... 20th December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Dec.) The small rise in the German Ifo index in December was a welcome surprise, but it hardly transforms the outlook for the economy. 20th December 2011 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swedish Riksbank cuts rates and more likely to come The Swedish Riksbank’s decision to reduce interest rates is a timely reminder that even the strongest performing European economies are not immune from the effects of the euro-zone debt crisis. We... 20th December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update The implications of a French downgrade The immediate, mechanical effect of a French credit rating downgrade might not be too severe as it has already been at least partly priced in by financial markets. But it could have disastrous... 19th December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Banks unlikely to ride to their governments’ rescue A closer look at the euro-zone policymakers’ new plan to “save the euro” has not altered our view that it will not bring the debt crisis to an end, especially since several key components of the deal... 19th December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are we too optimistic about the outlook for Swiss industrial rents? Switzerland does not seem to be awash with vacant industrial property, so the risks of a slump in rental values in this sector over the next year or two are low. But the looming euro-zone recession... 15th December 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Weak PMIs highlight downside risks to metals prices The first estimates of the manufacturing PMIs for both China and the euro-zone remained well below 50 in December. Despite the prospect of further monetary easing by the People’s Bank of China... 15th December 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How vulnerable is Asia to a euro-zone banking crisis? The impact on emerging Asia of a fall in lending by euro-zone banks to the region would be small. However, Asia would be vulnerable if the crisis in the euro-zone caused global credit markets to... 15th December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Dec.), Emp. (Q3) & HICP Inflation (Nov.) December’s rise in the euro-zone composite PMI did nothing to alter our view that the region is heading into a fairly deep recession, regardless of how the debt crisis develops. 15th December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Oct.) October’s euro-zone industrial production data add to evidence that the wider economy may have contracted pretty sharply in Q4. 14th December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is the ECB doing more than we think? Recent changes to the ECB’s bank lending operations and the news that national central banks may lend to the IMF have raised hopes that support for the region’s most troubled economies is being... 13th December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Dec.) Despite rising slightly in December, the German ZEW index points to a risk of recession in the coming months. 13th December 2011 · 1 min read
