Europe Economics Weekly Yield spreads to remain elevated Deteriorating global growth prospects and increased risk aversion have prompted a further fall in German 10-year government bond yields to a post-reunification low of around 2.1%. While fears have... 30th August 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German CPI (1st Est. Aug.) August’s fall in German HICP inflation confirmed the absence of price pressures in the euro-zone’s largest economy. Indeed, we still see the headline rate there falling to near zero next year. 27th August 2010 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Still pretty downbeat despite a strong Q2 The ECB is likely to maintain a very dovish stance at the forthcoming meeting. Admittedly, recent positive data might have led the Bank to revise up its growth forecast for 2010. But the slowdown in... 26th August 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) The latest money figures add to evidence that annual credit growth is picking up. But with credit conditions still tight and many peripheral banks still looking vulnerable, the ECB will need to... 26th August 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Spanish GDP (Q2) The latest Spanish GDP figures confirmed that the economy continued its modest revival in Q2. But with the full effects of the fiscal squeeze yet to be felt and global demand set to slow, the recovery... 26th August 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Can Spain take the pain? Markets may have become more confident that Spain can get its public finances under control. But if Spain is to restore external balance within the euro-zone, it may have to accept a decade of... 25th August 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Aug.) August’s rise in the German Ifo is good news after falls in some of the other surveys lately. But the slight decline in expectations highlights concerns for the future. 25th August 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Does the euro-zone cycle lag behind that in the US? The euro-zone’s relative resilience has prompted some optimism lately, but note that the region’s business cycle typically lags behind that of the US. Euro-zone growth will almost certainly follow... 24th August 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German GDP (Q2) The breakdown of Q2’s German GDP data looks very encouraging, with the 2.2% quarterly surge in activity driven by both exports and domestic spending. But we doubt that the strength of either is... 24th August 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Aug.) August’s fall in the euro-zone composite PMI suggests that the recovery is now beginning to slow alongside those of other major economies. But the index points to pretty strong GDP growth for the time... 23rd August 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Export recovery to slow before long Recent encouraging news on the euro-zone has prompted us to revise up our 2010 GDP growth forecast from 1.0% to 1.5%. But the recovery is still heavily reliant on German exporters and the outlook for... 23rd August 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Why are Dutch retail yields leading the euro-zone recovery? Boosted by the low level of unemployment and relatively attractive pricing, strong demand among large institutional investors has pushed prime retail yields down in the Netherlands more so than... 20th August 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Norwegian GDP (Q2) Q2’s GDP figures add to evidence that Norway is on track for a modest recovery, suggesting that the Norges Bank will continue to tread cautiously. 19th August 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will Stockholm's prime office yield underperformance last? The recovery in Stockholm’s prime office yields may have got off to a late start, but we do not think their underperformance relative to the neighbouring Nordic markets of Copenhagen and Oslo will... 18th August 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Two-speed euro-zone still on shaky ground Q2’s GDP figures highlighted huge divergences within the euro-zone. We have revised up our growth forecast for this year, but this is entirely down to a better performance by Germany. And with... 17th August 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW (Aug.) August’s drop in the German ZEW index will dent any hopes that the strength of the recovery in Q2 could continue. Although the economy should post a strong annual gain of 3% or more this year as a... 17th August 2010 · 1 min read
