Europe Economics Update Mariodona will have to swerve soon The fall in government bond yields after the ECB announced its new bond-buying programme has prompted suggestions that the plan may not actually need to be activated. But it is only a matter of time... 17th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook A lull in the storm Expectations of stronger policy support from the European Central Bank have prompted a period of relative calm in the euro-zone. But previous lulls have not lasted for very long. There are still few... 16th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Oct.), EZ Trade & Final CPI (Aug./Sep.) October’s rise in the German ZEW index suggests that the prospect of ECB bond purchases has continued to ease investors’ fears for the economy. And August’s trade data suggest that the euro-zone as a... 16th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Budget doesn’t solve Portugal’s problems On the face of it, Portugal’s Budget for 2013 will enable it to meet the deficit targets set by the Troika and receive the rest of its bail-out funds. But public resistance to austerity and/or a sharp... 16th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will industrial rental value growth in Zurich outpace Geneva? Industrial rents seem to be more sensitive to changes in the Swiss economy in Geneva than in Zurich. And industrial rents in Geneva also look a little high compared to Zurich, at least relative to... 15th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is Greek industry really recovering? Greek industry has recently staged a bit of a revival, but we doubt that the upturn will be sustained. And even if it is, the wider economy may remain in recession. 15th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly The euro-zone’s multiplying woes The IMF’s analysis suggesting that “fiscal multipliers” are rather bigger than many governments have been assuming does not tell us much that we did not already know about the euro-zone. It’s pretty... 15th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Aug.) August’s rise in euro-zone industrial production suggests that GDP is unlikely to have contracted as sharply as the more downbeat business surveys suggest in Q3 12th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Why is Spain still dragging its heels? Spain’s delay in applying for a bail-out and hence triggering the ECB’s new bond buying plan probably reflects both political and financial considerations. But it can’t hold out for much longer. 11th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Fundamentals still point to rising property yields in Paris The recent rebound in French real estate equity prices suggests that our forecast for commercial property capital values in Paris to fall by a total of 15% to 20% in 2012-13 may be too pessimistic... 10th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are we too gloomy on the outlook for Spanish retail rents? Weak prospects for Spain’s consumer sector suggest that retail occupier demand will deteriorate before the end of this year. That together with a development pipeline which is still growing makes us... 9th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production & Trade (Aug.) August’s German industrial production and trade figures suggest that, unlike most of the rest of the euro-zone, the economy is probably avoiding a recession for now. 8th October 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Does the ECB have a strong case for buying Spanish bonds? If Spain applied to the EFSF/ESM for a (partial) sovereign bail-out, the path would become clear for the ECB to buy Spanish government bonds under its Outright Monetary Transmissions (OMT) programme... 8th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Could Greece take advantage of a return to the drachma? The view of some commentators that a return to the drachma would be of little benefit to Greece because “it does not export much” is wide of the mark. Not only would an exit and devaluation improve... 8th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the Greek bail-out starting to crumble? Successful bond auctions by the Spanish and Portuguese Governments last week, coupled with signs that other markets may also be starting to function more normally, provided further glimmers of hope... 8th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB plays its cards close to its chest President Draghi reiterated the ECB’s determination to preserve the single currency at today’s interest rate press conference, but there remains a large amount of uncertainty surrounding how the... 4th October 2012 · 1 min read
