Europe Economics Weekly Another Greek sticking plaster Euro-zone finance ministers are inching ever closer to a deal on the bail-out which will satisfy their own debt sustainability criteria and in the near term at least avoid a politically troublesome... 26th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Is retail property in Brussels overpriced? We think that weak retail fundamentals in Belgium don’t warrant the currently low level of retail property yields in Brussels. Indeed, our forecast that consumer spending and retail rents are likely... 22nd November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Could Cyprus be the first domino to fall? The news that Cyprus is about to run out of money has given a dangerous new angle to the euro-zone crisis. The economy is so small that a bail-out would be very cheap, but the Government will be... 22nd November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Nov.) The slight rise in the flash euro-zone composite purchasing managers’ index (PMI) in November clearly does nothing to alter our view that the recession has intensified in Q4. 22nd November 2012 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Are Scandinavian property prices on the brink? Consistent with the slowdown in the region’s economies, the upturn in commercial property rents in Scandinavia seems to have stalled. Given that, we think that yields will begin to rise before long... 21st November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How would a euro break-up affect the core? A euro-zone break-up would see the re-instated domestic currencies of the region’s core economies appreciate sharply. Without appropriate policy action, the resulting damage to exports would more than... 20th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Norwegian GDP (Q3) Despite the fall in overall GDP in Q3, Norway is still weathering the euro-zone debt crisis rather well. 20th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update French downgrade highlights troubles in the core The direct effect of the latest downgrade of France should be modest. But it threatens to deepen the political rift between France and Germany, making policies to tackle the euro-zone’s debt crisis... 20th November 2012 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian GDP (Q3 12) Despite the fall in overall GDP in Q3, Norway is still weathering the euro-zone debt crisis rather well. 20th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Core's resilience unlikely to last Last week’s euro-zone economic data brought some reasons for hope. While GDP in the region as a whole fell for the second quarter running in Q3, both Germany and France posted modest expansions... 19th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Commercial property prices on their last legs? In Q3, the euro-zone economy entered recession. For now, across the euro-zone as a whole commercial property rents and yields are pretty much flat. But if we are right that the region’s economic... 16th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q3 12) Q3’s GDP data confirmed that, despite continued growth in Germany and France, the euro-zone as a whole is now officially in recession. We expect the recession to deepen markedly in the coming quarters... 15th November 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What lies behind the IMF’s spat with the euro-zone? The public disagreement between the IMF and euro-zone reveals underlying tensions over whether core euro-zone governments will accept haircuts on their share of Greece’s public debt and concern among... 14th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Ind. Prod. (Sep.) & Greek & Portuguese GDP (Q3) September’s plunge in euro-zone industrial production and the weak Greek and Portuguese Q3 GDP data provided additional firm evidence that the region’s economic problems continue to mount. 14th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How will Greece's extra financing needs be met? We suspect that policymakers may find a way to meet the estimated increase in Greece’s borrowing needs for the remainder of its bail-out deal without providing bigger loans. But if the economic... 13th November 2012 · 1 min read
