Europe Economics Weekly Break-up worries finally hitting the euro Last week’s rise in German bund yields might have reflected expectations that Germany has finally accepted the need to shoulder more of the peripheral economies’ fiscal risk. After all, German... 28th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Amsterdam retail rental outperformance won’t last Retail rental value growth in Amsterdam over the past year has been strong relative to other euro-zone markets and also relative to the office sector. In our view, there is little justification for... 24th November 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Catch-22 for German Bunds Germany is caught between a rock and a hard place. If she rides to the rescue of her neighbours, she will undermine her own credit standing. If she chooses not to, the euro-zone will probably collapse... 24th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey & GDP Breakdown (Nov./Q3) November’s slightly stronger Ifo survey will do little to ease the growing concerns over the outlook for Germany in the wake of yesterday’s unsuccessful bund auction. 24th November 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Western support for CEE banks starts to wane Austria’s decision to restrict lending by its banks to subsidiaries in Emerging Europe reflects a broader shift in sentiment on the part of Western banks away from supporting units further east. This... 23rd November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Nov.) November’s flash PMI surveys provided further support for our view that the damaging effects of the euro-zone’s ongoing debt crisis are likely to push the region’s economy back into a deep and... 23rd November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Are euro bonds the answer? Jointly issued euro-zone bonds might represent the move into full-blown fiscal union that could be needed to preserve the single currency area in the long run. But opposition from Germany suggests... 22nd November 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus The market fall-out from a Greek default and possible EMU exit Greece is on the cusp of a sovereign default that could still be either “orderly” or “disorderly”. An orderly default would cause less upheaval in the markets, but any respite would probably be... 22nd November 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Worse to come for “core” euro-zone bonds? The yields on government bonds issued by France, Austria, Belgium and the Netherlands have risen sharply in recent weeks in a worrying sign that the euro-zone’s debt crisis is starting to rot its... 21st November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Weaker investment flows in the pipeline Uncertainty about the euro-zone economic outlook is prompting property investors to act more cautiously. Activity in Q3 was driven by deals initiated before the summer’s turmoil. We agree with survey... 21st November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Break-up fears pile pressure on the core There are still few signs that euro-zone policymakers are close to placing a firewall around the region’s most troubled economies. This, combined with the deteriorating economic outlook, led some of... 21st November 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What to make of Greece’s bigger “haircut” Details have begun to emerge of the revised debt exchange proposed for Greece. The good news is that a larger haircut will make her debt more manageable, all else equal. The bad news is that all else... 16th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Are markets starting to price in a euro break-up? Financial markets seem finally to have started to accept that the euro-zone might actually break up. Regular readers will not be surprised to hear that we think this process has considerably further... 16th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Which sector might fare worst from the looming Italian recession? The prospect of a renewed recession in Italy is likely to mean that in each of the next two years all of the main commercial property sectors will see capital value falls. But the weak outlook for... 16th November 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Can China's demand offset the impact of the euro crisis? The consensus view is that continued buoyant demand from China will prevent the prices of industrial commodities, such as crude oil and copper, from falling very far, despite the worsening financial... 16th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the new Spanish Government steady the ship? Although Spain is in a rather better position than its Southern European counterparts, the next Government still faces huge challenges and is unlikely to overcome them without outside help. 16th November 2011 · 1 min read
