Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss CPI (Feb.19) & Sweden Priv. Sec. Prod. (Jan.19) The continued lack of price pressures in Switzerland will reaffirm the SNB’s dovish stance. Meanwhile, private sector activity data from Sweden for January suggest that the economy made a weak start... 5th March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Prime property valuations steady as risk aversion rises In light of the changes to our valuation weightings this quarter, many markets are closer to fair value than in our last Valuation Monitor. That said, the majority of property markets (51 out of 93)... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor End of QT unlikely to affect bond valuations much In his semi-annual testimony to Congress, Jerome Powell reiterated that the Fed is deciding how and when to end its balance sheet rundown. Although some officials have indicated that it could finish... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business and Consumer Survey (Feb.) February’s euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) confirmed the message from other surveys that despite weakness in the industrial sector, the overall economy is still growing. That said, the... 27th February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Manufacturing recession, auto tariff threat The small rise in the composite PMI for the euro-zone, from 51.0 in January to 51.4 in February, came as a bit of a relief – especially as this was the first increase in six months. However, it leaves... 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly China and Germany, another Spanish election With Germany having narrowly avoided recession and Italy’s downturn dragging on, policymakers at the ECB will soon have to provide more clarity about which tools they are willing to use if the... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update ECB and SNB unlikely to put a floor under bond yields We doubt that German and Swiss government bond yields will drop much further. But if they do fall deep into negative territory, there probably won’t be much that the ECB or the SNB will be willing or... 13th February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly EC slashes forecasts, German recession still possible The publication of macroeconomic forecasts by the European Commission is not normally a market-moving event. But the extent of the downward revisions to its GDP forecasts seemed to take the financial... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Recession risks rising Economic activity finished last year on a weak note and most business surveys suggest that things did not improve in January. Italy went back into recession in the second half of 2018 and the evidence... 6th February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Italy and Spain diverge, Brexit risks and Ireland At the end of last year, Italy fell back into recession but Spain’s economic growth rate accelerated. We think that this divergence will continue. Next week is a quieter one for data releases; we... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Allure of property to keep investment strong in 2019 With risk-free rates expected to stay low, the continued attractiveness of commercial property returns means that investment in 2019 likely to be close to last year’s record level. 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update European coal prices to remain grounded Weaker demand, the ongoing transition away from coal and rising supply from Russia will lead to lower European coal prices in 2019. We forecast that the price of Rotterdam coal will fall from $80 per... 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business and Consumer Survey (Jan.) The further drop in the EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) in January adds to the evidence that the euro-zone economy got off to a slow start to 2019. 30th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Slowdown intensifies, ECB slightly dovish The latest batch of business surveys suggest that the euro-zone economy may be stalling rather than just slowing. We think the ECB will tweak its forward guidance in March, and will at least consider... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response ECB Bank Lending Survey (Q4 2018) The latest ECB Bank Lending Survey shows that consumers’ and firms’ demand for credit is softening, adding to the evidence that the euro-zone economy has lost momentum. 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Outlook is not bright for euro-zone peripheral bonds We think that government bonds in the euro-zone “periphery” will fare quite poorly in the next two years – particularly in Italy and Greece – as growth disappoints and deficits overshoot expectations... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
