Europe Economics Update Assessing the prospects for the EU’s vaccine roll-out Yesterday’s approval of the first vaccine by European authorities marked the start of the roll-out of COVID-19 vaccines in the EU, which we expect to lead to a lifting of restrictions in Q2. However... 22nd December 2020 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly SNB pleads “not guilty”; Denmark to close down The designation of Switzerland as a “currency manipulator” by the US Treasury means that the SNB will enter 2021 on the economic equivalent of the naughty step. However, we suspect that the incoming... 18th December 2020 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB extends implicit yield curve control The ECB’s message that it will persist with its flexible asset purchase programme until at least early 2022 should reassure investors that there will not be a reversal of the compression of bond... 10th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Vaccines to prompt rapid growth in 2021 and 2022 Euro-zone GDP looks set to fall in Q4, but the prospect of vaccine rollouts has significantly improved the outlook. We think that containment measures will be scaled back when the most vulnerable... 4th December 2020 · 12 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update CEE-euro-zone office yield spread to keep widening A weaker CEE rental outlook, coupled with tighter policy and investors’ reassessment of the sector, suggest that the recent widening between CEE and euro-zone office yields has further to go. 3rd December 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Vaccine will not provide a quick fix for real estate News about a vaccine has boosted financial markets and we have revised up our global economic expectations for the next two years or so. But while we think that this bodes well for the medium term... 2nd December 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Only 15% of European markets overvalued Falls in alternative asset yields in Q3 meant valuations continued to improve for offices and retail, while they held steady for industrial. And the backdrop is supportive of property valuations in... 30th November 2020 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Riksbank steps up as the SNB settles in The Riksbank justifiably felt the need to give the economy a shot in the arm at its meeting this week. But positive news on the vaccine front means that it should be able to avoid increasing the dose... 27th November 2020 · 7 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Consumer Confidence (Nov.) The fall in consumer confidence in November suggests that good news about the vaccine has not done much to improve sentiment in the euro-zone. With the virus still spreading quickly and lockdowns... 20th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB to give economy a shot in the arm We see substantial upside risk to our forecasts for next year, thanks to the prospect of a mass vaccination programme. But the near-term outlook is still gloomy, with November's PMI scheduled for... 20th November 2020 · 6 mins read
UK Commercial Property Focus Higher online share to boost logistics demand by 15% Virus-driven behaviour changes that support a faster online transition will boost industrial demand over the coming years. But we don’t believe the view that higher online spending will cause rents to... 19th November 2020 · 20 mins read
Europe Economics Update Vaccines pave way to lifting of restrictions in Q2 2021 There is still a lot of uncertainty about the rollout of a COVID-19 vaccine in Europe, but it now seems likely that it will be delivered to those most vulnerable to the disease by Q2 next year, which... 17th November 2020 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Timely data add to evidence of Q4 contraction Daily mobility data suggest that, compared to “normal”, the current lockdowns will cause GDP to fall less than half as far as in April. Mobility has fallen most sharply in France and has held up best... 17th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Vaccine optimism but restrictions take their toll While an effective vaccine that would transform the economic outlook looks more likely than it did only a week ago, questions about how and when it will be distributed still need to be answered. So it... 13th November 2020 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Vaccine offers hope, but clouds darken over Q4 The vaccine offers hope of faster growth next year than we have factored into our current forecasts. However, the recent surge in virus cases in Switzerland, the rising strain on the healthcare sector... 12th November 2020 · 5 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Have we been too pessimistic about pricing in 2020? Third quarter data make it look increasingly likely that our year-end price forecasts will prove to be too negative. However, with the UK still on course for a capital value fall of close to 10% this... 12th November 2020 · 3 mins read
