Europe Economics Weekly Euro-gloom, Brexit fears and Greek politics This week saw more evidence that the euro-zone economy has lost a lot of momentum. Meanwhile, the UK parliament rejected the EU Withdrawal Agreement, once again raising the spectre of a no deal Brexit... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Missing the global tightening cycle The euro-zone should regain some momentum in the coming months, at least compared to its dire performance at the end of last year. But we think the economy will expand by just 1% in 2019 as a whole... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Investment in Europe shifting back to core strategies With plenty of capital still waiting to be deployed and attractive returns on offer, investment in European commercial property is likely to be strong again this year. However, a swing back towards... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What to expect from elections in Europe this year In a busy election calendar this year, the focus will be on the rise of populist and euro-sceptic parties. Elections for the European Parliament in May are the most high profile event, but there will... 17th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Downside risks are mounting The euro-zone has shifted down a gear but has not (yet) gone into reverse. Italy probably experienced a technical recession last year and Germany only narrowly avoided one. More importantly, the... 16th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Bund yields likely to remain low in 2019 and 2020 We think that loose monetary policy and safe-haven flows will keep the German 10-year government bond yield around its current level this year and next. Yields in most other “core” countries are also... 16th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Recession talk, ECB getting more cautious Sharp falls in industrial production in November last year mean that Germany and Italy may have experienced technical recessions in 2018. And GDP in the euro-zone as a whole probably increased by only... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Structurally lower interest rates support valuations With interest rates likely to be structurally lower in the future, prime property yields are unlikely to return to historical levels. As such, we have re-weighted our valuation scores to exclude the... 9th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business and Consumer Survey (Dec.) Following on from the disappointing German industrial production data released earlier today, the drop in the EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) for December is yet another sign that there was a... 8th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone economy continues to lose momentum Data released this week suggest that the economy lost more momentum at the end of last year and that GDP growth in 2019 won’t be as good as in 2018. 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update What to watch out for in European property in 2019 Commercial property capital values will rise again in 2019, supported by an improved outlook for yields, which will, at a European level, edge slightly lower this year. However, a weakening economic... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Could a no deal Brexit bring upside to the euro-zone? A no deal Brexit is unlikely to provide much support for property in the rest of Europe. The negative impact on euro-zone occupier markets should be modest, but investors, rather than reallocate UK... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Italy kicks the can down the road This week, Italy’s Government again showed itself to be more flexible than many had anticipated. But its fiscal problems are far from over and, in our view, public debt still looks unsustainable in... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Softness in bond markets pushes back yield rises Scandinavian property yields are now set to mark time in 2019 before rising from 2020, despite slowing rental growth. Copenhagen industrial is our top pick for the region. Total returns will be higher... 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB dovish as PMI confirms growth slowdown Following this week’s ECB meeting, and the latest data on economic growth in the currency union, the chance that the Bank raises interest rates next year has fallen. 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Property yields to plateau With growth in the euro-zone slowing faster than expected and the chances of the ECB delaying its first interest rate hike increasing, property yields are now more likely to plateau next year, than... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
