Europe

Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor

Improvement in valuations set to continue

The reversal in equity dividend yields following the virus-related market rout in March lead to a broad-based improvement in property valuations. (See Chart 1.) Coupled with central banks’ assurances...

3rd September 2020 7 mins read

Nordic & Swiss Data Response

Manufacturing PMIs (Aug.)

The positive set of August manufacturing PMIs from Switzerland and the Nordics suggests that the recovery in industrial activity continued over the summer. While the fortunes of industry depend in...

1st September 2020 2 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

German generosity, Fed’s shift food for thought at ECB

Given that economic activity is still below pre-virus levels and the resurgence in virus cases shows little sign of abating, it is hardly surprising that Germany and France announced extensions to...

28th August 2020 9 mins read

Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly

KOF hits decade-high; retail sugar-rush starting to fade

The Swiss economy contracted by more than those in the Nordics in the first half of the year but appears to have rebounded strongly in the third quarter. Rising virus cases in the country are...

28th August 2020 5 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Monetary Indicators Monitor (July)

Broad money growth accelerated to a 12-year high in July, but we think that this will prove to be temporary and is not likely to push up inflation. Meanwhile, growth in bank lending to firms has...

27th August 2020 4 mins read

Nordic & Swiss Economics Update

Nordics top the class with their virus responses

While Sweden’s economy got off relatively lightly in H1 thanks to the light-touch lockdown, Norway and Finland saw even smaller falls in activity at a lower human cost. Nonetheless, the success of the...

26th August 2020 4 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Recovery in France likely to outpace Spain and Italy

France’s virus-related slump in the first half of 2020 rivalled the big falls in GDP in Italy and Spain. But its recovery should be stronger because working from home is more common, the economy is...

24th August 2020 4 mins read

Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack

Scandinavia & Switzerland: Retail not off the hook yet

Q2 data was a mixed bag as all markets recorded shifts in yields while only a handful of markets saw moves in rents. That said, Scandinavian investment activity took a significant hit in Q2, and...

24th August 2020 6 mins read

Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly

Swiss pharma boom rolls on; Riksbank biding its time

The resilience of the pharmaceutical sector masked much deeper problems in the Swiss manufacturing sector in Q2, but signs that German industry continued to rebound in August bode well given strong...

21st August 2020 7 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack

Retail property values move sharply lower

Investment and occupier demand plunged further in Q2. As expected, the retail sector bore the brunt of the impact, with capital values falling by almost 9% y/y. This drove down all-property capital...

19th August 2020 9 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Second wave likely to be a drag rather than a disaster

Virus numbers have risen sharply in the past month, but the second wave has different characteristics from the first. It is concentrated in younger people, so hospitals are not being put under such...

19th August 2020 4 mins read

Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly

Denmark outperforms in Q2

News that Danish GDP contracted by 7.4% q/q in Q2 leaves us happy with our forecast that it will fall by only around 3% this calendar year – a much smaller contraction than we expect in the euro-zone...

14th August 2020 4 mins read

Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack

Recovery on track after comparatively shallow slump

Compared to many of the larger euro-zone countries, the coronavirus remains relatively well under control in the Nordic countries and Switzerland. With the exception of Denmark, there are at this...

13th August 2020 5 mins read

Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch

Norges Bank to maintain the status quo

The Norges Bank will almost certainly leave its key interest rate on hold at zero next Thursday (20th August), and we expect it to reiterate that it is in no rush to tighten policy.

13th August 2020 5 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Yield compression still on the cards next year

With accommodative monetary policy anchoring bond yields, we think that yield compression in the euro-zone is set to resume next year. But the balance of risks have clearly changed post-virus.

13th August 2020 3 mins read

Europe Economics Focus

Key lessons from Sweden’s Covid response

Sweden’s unique response to the pandemic means that it has acted as a control experiment for economists and epidemiologists alike. We suspect that its economy would have shrunk by an additional 3-4%...

12th August 2020 18 mins read