Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly From bad to worse in Switz; High noon in Sweden The surge in virus cases in Switzerland means that the government is all but certain to tighten restrictions, probably severely, next week. While the strong finish to Q3 provides a solid platform for... 23rd October 2020 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Not immune, but comparatively resilient Having outperformed in H1, the Nordic economies are set for some of the smallest falls in output in Europe this year. Of course, the virus is the key uncertainty for the outlook, but it is encouraging... 20th October 2020 · 13 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Second wave blows recovery off course The second wave of coronavirus has caused the recovery to stall and we forecast euro-zone GDP to stagnate for the next six months, with an outright recession a significant downside risk. We think... 19th October 2020 · 35 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Surging virus cases cast a shadow over Switzerland The appreciation of the Swiss franc to a three-month high against the euro this week opens the door to renewed FX interventions by the SNB. However, if appetite for risk improves next year, as we... 16th October 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Paris offices offer cold comfort Even though lockdown restrictions had eased, office take-up in Paris in Q3 was still well below pre-virus levels. And the recent imposition of tighter restrictions in Paris will likely curtail leasing... 16th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Imminent rise in bankruptcies to weigh on values Government action has meant corporate bankruptcies have remained low, which has prevented a sharp rise in tenancy defaults and has supported income security on leases. But, as this support is... 15th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Second wave forcing more restrictions With the virus spreading rapidly, governments are ramping up their containment measures. The new restrictions will be more targeted, regional and time-specific than in the first wave, but they are... 14th October 2020 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Recoveries slowing, but Nordics are still well placed The slowdown in the pace of monthly GDP growth in Norway in August was driven in large part by a fall in consumer spending. The post-lockdown spending splurge on goods appears to have peaked before... 13th October 2020 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Retail sales strength belies overall economic weakness While retail sales have more than regained their pre-coronavirus level, other parts of the economy are lagging well behind. With the virus restrictions being tightened, the chances of a new downturn... 9th October 2020 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Defiant SNB; slowing recoveries Comments this week by Thomas Jordan reiterated that the SNB is not fazed by Switzerland’s inclusion on the US Treasury’s monitoring list of potential currency manipulators, and that policymakers would... 9th October 2020 · 5 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update What do recent sales data imply for the retail sector? The recent strength of retail sales data overstates demand on European prime high streets, with spending by tourists still absent and online purchases making an above-average contribution in most... 9th October 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Focus Is COVID-19 the death-knell for physical retail? Retail has been hit hard by the COVID-19 crisis and lasting changes to online spending will bring further pain. While our estimates suggest that the impact is likely to be less severe than structural... 8th October 2020 · 27 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly NOK to push for parity against SEK next year We think the combination of a recovery in risk appetite and an expected increase in oil prices will support the Norwegian krone in 2021, and that it will regain ground on its Swedish cousin. Data due... 2nd October 2020 · 5 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Hopes fading for a real estate bounce next year While we continue to think that this year’s property downturn will be milder than in past cycles, next year’s recovery is looking more fragile. This in part reflects revisions to our economic view... 1st October 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Rebound in trade to boost industrial rents in ports Despite the sharp drop in GDP, the relatively small fall in world trade has meant that industrial rents in port cities held up better than expected during H1. And we think that the ongoing recovery in... 1st October 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI (Sep.), Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.) While Swiss inflation has risen since reaching a trough in June, it is likely to stay very weak in the near term. Meanwhile, the positive set of September manufacturing PMIs from Switzerland and... 1st October 2020 · 2 mins read
