UK Economics IHS Markit/CIPS Flash PMIs (Jul.) The second consecutive decline in the flash composite PMI in July came as no surprise to us as we expected the pace of the economic recovery to naturally slow after the big gains following the... 23rd July 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Israel and the Delta variant: what we know so far A rise in virus cases in Israel has prompted the government to re-impose restrictions on activity, including mask mandates and vaccine certification for large events. There are signs that the Pfizer... 23rd July 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Euro-zone Flash PMIs (July) July’s euro-zone PMIs confirm that the economy is still rebounding rapidly and that price pressures are continuing to build. While the Delta variant poses a risk to our above-consensus GDP forecasts... 23rd July 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Retail Sales (Jun.) The underlying trend in retail sales volumes is a bit weaker than the 0.5% m/m rise in June suggests. And other evidence indicates that the resurgence in the virus and the “pingdemic” may have taken... 23rd July 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics ECB reinforces commitment to keep rates low The ECB followed through on its strategy review today by raising the bar for interest rate hikes in language which was probably a touch more dovish than expected. The Bank made no change to its... 22nd July 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Markets to regain their poise as recoveries continue While the resurgence in COVID-19 cases that has recently weighted on UK equities, the pound and 10-year gilt yields is clearly a downside risk, our view that it won’t deal a big blow to the global or... 22nd July 2021 · 8 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Post-pandemic recovery phase drawing to a close As elsewhere in mainland Europe, activity in Switzerland and the Nordic economies rebounded in Q2 as services sectors re-opened and the strength of global trade has buoyed exports. Our GDP forecasts... 22nd July 2021 · 13 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Prime Brussels offices to fare better than most More remote working is pushing all occupiers to reassess their office space, but we think that rental growth for prime offices in Brussels should hold up better than the wider market. 22nd July 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Delta variant won’t trigger fresh lockdowns The pick-up in the euro-zone’s vaccine rollout means governments are unlikely to reintroduce significant new restrictions even as cases rise. So while the Delta variant might take some of the gloss... 21st July 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Strong recovery, but inflation a lasting concern Rapid recoveries are underway across the region and GDP should return close to its pre-pandemic path sooner than in most other EM regions. While the spread of highly transmissible virus strains poses... 21st July 2021 · 28 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM goods exports may have passed the peak After surging over the past year, the latest data provide signs that EM goods exports have now passed their peak. However, they are still likely to stay at elevated levels for some time yet. 21st July 2021 · 2 mins read
Energy Update Sky-high European gas prices unlikely to be sustained We think a reversal of the factors that have fuelled the recent surge in European natural gas prices, namely high LNG prices, constrained supply and depleted stocks, will bring prices back down to... 20th July 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update More competition a risk to flexible office activity While longer-term drivers are supportive of flexible offices, we think demand for space will be held back by the slow return of workers to the office, by more competition from home offices and by high... 20th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: surging inflation to prompt more rate hikes Russian inflation shows no sign of letting up and looks set to remain above the central bank’s 4% target until at least the end of next year. With households’ inflation expectations also rising, we... 19th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Israel’s virus resurgence, re-opening inflation in CEE The experience of Israel in recent weeks serves as a reminder that vaccine campaigns across Emerging Europe still have some way to go and that we are likely to have to learn to live with COVID long... 16th July 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Spare capacity in labour market mutes wage pressures We now expect the euro-zone economy to grow more quickly this year than the consensus or the ECB expects. Inflation too will be higher than others are forecasting as supply shortages persist into the... 16th July 2021 · 5 mins read
