UK Economics Labour Market (Aug./Sep.) The further strengthening of the labour market in August may prompt some members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to put more weight on the upside risks to inflation rather than the downside... 12th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (Sep.) There was nothing in today’s release of Norwegian inflation data for September to overly trouble the Norges Bank, or cause it to deviate from its stated intention to raise interest rates again in... 11th October 2021 · 2 mins read
DM Valuations Monitor Assessing the outlook for US equity valuations We forecast that the valuation of the US stock market will deflate a bit further over the next couple of years, though we are not expecting a sharp decline. 8th October 2021 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Energy costs soar, vehicle output slumps Soaring energy costs are yet another headwind to the euro-zone’s economic recovery. That said, while the balance of risks has arguably shifted to the upside, we still think price pressures are likely... 8th October 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Sweden’s August shocker The slump in Sweden’s GDP indicator for August brought its economy back below its pre-pandemic level, whereas Norway – which appears to be unencumbered by these headwinds – saw its economy continue... 8th October 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Poland-EU conflict, CEE tightening, auto sector woes The decision this week by Poland's Constitutional Court to rule that some EU laws are in conflict with the Polish Constitution has sent shockwaves through Europe and raises the possibility that the... 8th October 2021 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Good politics on wages meets bad economics The government’s plan to decrease the UK’s reliance on migrant labour in order to boost wages may be good politics, but it is not good economics. While labour shortages may push up wages in some... 8th October 2021 · 8 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update CEE investment recovery to pick up from 2022 We think a greater reliance on foreign capital and tighter monetary conditions will leave CEE investment activity lagging the euro-zone in H2. Overall, transactions are set to end the year 5% lower... 8th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update We think the Norwegian krone’s rally is nearing its end Although the krone has rallied this year on the back of high energy prices and the expectation of tighter monetary policy, we do not expect this to continue. We think slowing global growth and... 7th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Headwinds strengthening Supply shortages and rising energy prices are becoming stronger headwinds to the euro-zone recovery. The latest data from Germany showed sharp falls in industrial orders and production, with... 7th October 2021 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update BoI ends asset purchases, rate hike now likely in 2022 The Bank of Israel revised up its forecast for GDP growth at today’s meeting and struck a more hawkish tone on inflation as it announced that it will end its asset purchase programme later this year... 7th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB growing more uncertain about inflation outlook The account of September’s ECB meeting revealed many policymakers believed that inflation may stay higher for longer than the Bank’s projections show. Recent developments have added to the upside... 7th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Can Europe keep the lights on? The extraordinary rise in European gas prices in recent weeks has raised the possibility that, as a last resort, European governments may need to ration the supply of electricity to businesses or... 7th October 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update What do the latest UK jobs data tell us? UK employment has recovered strongly in recent quarters and is set to see further growth into 2022. This will be good news for UK offices, especially in regional cities. But with occupiers set to look... 7th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Did Europeans leave cities (and have they returned)? The pandemic and widespread use of remote working appeared to entice some Europeans to leave cities last year. However, the recent improvement in city mobility adds evidence to our view that this... 7th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (August) The whopping 4.7% m/m fall in German manufacturing production in August left industrial output 9.0% below its February 2020 level. With conditions having worsened since then, Germany’s manufacturing... 7th October 2021 · 2 mins read
