Emerging Europe Economics Update The costs of Russia’s shift towards isolation It is highly likely that the war in Ukraine will accelerate Russia’s shift towards isolation and into autarky. This will prevent Russia from catching up with more advanced economies, while the West... 10th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics ECB FX intervention is unlikely There has been some discussion of possible FX intervention by the ECB to support the euro, but there is next to no chance of that being announced at today’s press conference, and unless the single... 10th March 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update South East office rents unlikely to rebound in 2022 The South East jobs market turned a corner during the second half of 2021. But while occupier activity has picked up, vacancy has also risen. As a result of this, and the effects of economic headwinds... 10th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update EU mulls another round of joint bond issuance The EU is considering more joint bond issuance, reportedly of around €200bn or 1.4% of EU GDP. If this is agreed, the devil will be in the detail and the amounts involved may fall short of some... 9th March 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Economics The influence of the war on the UK economy The UK is not as exposed to the economic consequences of the war in Ukraine as the rest of Europe. Even so, in response to the surge in global commodity prices caused by the war we have dramatically... 9th March 2022 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Feb.) Russian inflation rose to 9.2% y/y in February and, more importantly, the weekly CPI figures up to 4 th March (also just released) show that the collapse in the ruble led to a particularly sharp 2.2%... 9th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics EU’s pivot away from Russian gas will come at a price While the plan to reduce Europe’s reliance on Russian gas this year seems achievable, it will only lock in higher-for-longer gas prices and prolong the squeeze on household incomes. 9th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A deep dive into Russian corporate debt risks The growing list of countries imposing restrictions on Russia’s energy exports has raised the likelihood of a deeper contraction in Russia’s economy this year and a wave of corporate defaults. This... 9th March 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Amsterdam office rental growth to outperform EZ While we don’t think that 2021’s strong pace of prime office rental growth in Amsterdam will be sustained, we still expect growth to outperform the euro-zone over the next couple of years, averaging... 9th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor The war in Ukraine has triggered renewed outflows from EM financial markets as risk aversion has taken hold, but there are few signs of severe financial contagion. And even if outflows were to... 8th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update NBP steps up tightening as inflation risks heighten The National Bank of Poland (NBP) stepped up the pace of tightening today with a 75bp interest rate hike, to 3.50%, and the marked deterioration in the inflation outlook due to the war in Ukraine is... 8th March 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lenders and Administrators Statistics (Q4 21) While mortgage lending was softer at the end of last year that largely reflected the jolt from the ending of stamp duty discounts. More recent data point to very strong market activity in early 2022... 8th March 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Economics New higher inflation forecasts and lower GDP forecasts In response to the news that the US is considering banning imports of Russian oil, which means that commodity prices will probably be higher for longer, we have raised our CPI inflation forecast and... 7th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update The consequences of an end to Russian energy trade We think that a complete ban on Russian energy imports would cause the prices of Brent crude oil and European natural gas to surge to $160pb and €300/MWh in the near term and settle at still very high... 7th March 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Flattening gilt yield curve another signal of weaker growth The 10-year/2-year gilt yield curve is closer to inverting than at any point since March 2020, supporting our view that GDP growth will slow this year. And while a yield curve inversion isn’t a good... 7th March 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Feb.) The gain in house prices reported by Halifax for February pushed the annual rate to 10.8%, its highest since June 2007. With new supply limited and mortgage rates still relatively low, we suspect that... 7th March 2022 · 2 mins read
