Emerging Europe Economics Update The economic impact of Ukrainian refugees on CEE The potential for around 3 million refugees to settle in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) by the middle of this year will present a large fiscal cost, but will also boost the size of the labour force... 23rd March 2022 · 6 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack How the war in Ukraine has changed our thinking The war in Ukraine, as well as the hawkish tone adopted by some developed market (DM) central banks, have led us to revise up our end-22 and end-23 forecasts for government bond yields in some DMs and... 23rd March 2022 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack War in Ukraine to drag on EM GDP growth The war in Ukraine will have several economic repercussions for the emerging world. We have lowered our aggregate EM GDP growth forecast for 2022 by 1%-pt, to 3.2%. Russia aside, the biggest downward... 23rd March 2022 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Spring Fiscal Statement 2022 Checklist We are resending this checklist so clients can have it to hand ahead of today’s Spring Statement. It is designed to help clients keep track of the key economic and public finances forecasts announced... 23rd March 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Shopping centres not out of the woods yet Shopping centres were the hardest hit commercial property sector during the pandemic. The latest data hint that the sector may be past the worst. But the outlook remains clouded by the threat of... 23rd March 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Consumer Prices (Feb.) The further rise in CPI inflation from 5.5% in January to a new 30-year high of 6.2% in February adds to the pressure on the Chancellor to offset more of the cost of living crisis in today’s fiscal... 23rd March 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update MNB firmly in inflation-fighting mode Hungary’s central bank (MNB) stepped up the pace of tightening today with a 100bp increase in its base rate, to 4.40%, and the hawkish communications underline the view that the central bank will... 22nd March 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Can EMs weather Fed tightening? For the most part, EMs are well placed to withstand rising US interest rates, but there are pockets of vulnerability where external financing needs are significant. Among the large EMs, Turkey... 22nd March 2022 · 13 mins read
Europe Economics Update War could cause euro-zone manufacturing recession Just as the supply problems facing euro-zone manufacturers showed tentative signs of easing, the war in Ukraine has created new headwinds. It would not be surprising if industrial output fell in the... 22nd March 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Public Finances (Feb.) Notwithstanding the deterioration in the public finances in February, large revisions to the back data mean that borrowing in 2021/22 is on track to undershoot the OBR’s October 2021 forecast by a... 22nd March 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Contagion risks to CEE banks likely to be limited A close look at banking sector linkages in Central and Eastern Europe provides encouragement that there is little direct exposure to Russia and Ukraine and that any indirect exposure through a Western... 21st March 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Feb.) Activity data for February show that Poland’s economy continued to expand strongly at the start of this year but the war in Ukraine is likely to drag on the recovery through a hit to exports, supply... 21st March 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s inflation shock, default & peace talks Russia’s default saga seems to be settled for the time being, with creditors reportedly now receiving scheduled Eurobond payments, but the fact that it came so close to default suggests that sanctions... 18th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBR trying to stick to orthodoxy The post-meeting speech by Russia’s central bank (CBR) governor Elvira Nabiullina made clear that policymakers think sanctions and autarky are here to stay for the long term. But at the same time... 18th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Ingves’s epiphany opens door to April Riksbank hike It has been a long time coming, but Riksbank Governor Ingves’s apparent hawkish epiphany finally opens the door to tighter policy in Sweden. While analyst expectations have crowded around September as... 18th March 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Should the BoE fear the “stag” more than the “flation”? The Bank of England appears to be putting more weight on the “stag” part of the stagflationary consequences of the war in Ukraine than the “flation” part. But our forecast that the labour market will... 18th March 2022 · 8 mins read
