Emerging Markets Economics Update Supply disruptions weigh on EM industry October’s PMIs suggest that manufacturing sectors in Southeast Asia are recovering from recent Covid waves, but supply constraints are taking their toll on industry in China, Brazil and parts of... 2nd November 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Focus How pandemic changes will affect European cities Europeans are returning to cities, though the return to offices has been much slower and this has had negative effects on city retail. Looking ahead, weaker demand for office and retail will weigh on... 2nd November 2021 · 14 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI (Oct.) Inflation did surprise on the upside in Switzerland in October, but only by a trivial amount, leaving the headline rate at just over 1%. The market is pricing in an increase in policy rates to zero by... 2nd November 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.) The manufacturing PMIs in October showed that supply disruptions took a greater toll at the start of Q4, with industrial production growth in Turkey slowing and Czech industry likely to have... 1st November 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Sep.) Russia’s economy enjoyed a strong end to Q3, but the country’s severe COVID-19 outbreak has clouded the outlook more recently and is likely to cause growth to soften in Q4. 29th October 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly The Budget, the cycle and the size of the state Now that the dust has settled, two key points on the Autumn Budget stand out to us. The first relates to the size of the state. The Chancellor claimed to be on a “moral mission” to limit the size of... 29th October 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Investors unconvinced by ECB’s dovish message The ECB’s “soul searching” over inflation has made investors less, not more, convinced that the Bank will buck the hawkish trend elsewhere and keep policy rates on hold. We think investors have got... 29th October 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s spat, Poland-EU dispute and the zloty A diplomatic spat between Turkey and its Western allies this week was quickly resolved, but it highlighted how vulnerable the lira is to geopolitical developments. And comments from Turkey’s central... 29th October 2021 · 9 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Supply problems remain; Norges Bank to press on Sweden’s Q3 GDP data, published this week, were not as strong as they first appeared, and we expect supply problems to continue to weigh on activity there. The latest data for Switzerland suggest that... 29th October 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q3) The solid increase in euro-zone GDP in the third quarter means that the recovery phase is now almost complete in most of the euro-zone. Growth will be much slower in Q4 because the boost from... 29th October 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Money & Credit (Sep.) The tepid rise in consumer credit lends support to our view that economic growth slowed to little more than a crawl in September. Against the backdrop of rising COVID-19 cases and higher inflation, we... 29th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (Oct.) Euro-zone inflation looks set to rise further before year-end as higher input costs continue to feed through. We agree with the ECB that the forces pushing inflation up should fade next year, and our... 29th October 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Sep.) Net lending to UK commercial property was negative for the fourth month in a row in September, probably due to a rise in repayments. We expect further repayments, caution when seeking development... 29th October 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Sep.) Unsurprisingly, mortgage lending spiked in September as buyers rushed to complete before the stamp duty taper period ended. More notable is the resilience of mortgage approvals, suggesting that the... 29th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Consumer Prices (Oct.) & Czech GDP (Q3) The rise in Poland’s headline inflation rate to 6.8% y/y in October opens the door for the central bank to deliver a 25bp at next week’s MPC meeting. Elsewhere, Czechia’s economy performed a little... 29th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss KOF Economic Barometer (Oct.) While many economies in Europe are facing the twin headwinds of supply constraints and high gas prices, the KOF Economic Barometer in October suggests that the Swiss economy continued to grow strongly... 29th October 2021 · 2 mins read
