FX Markets Update Euro likely to end 2020 even weaker against the dollar While the euro has already fallen to its lowest level in nearly two years against the US dollar, we think that it will drop a bit further during the rest of 2020, pushed down by several factors... 19th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Jan.) The sharper-than-expected fall in Swedish inflation in January may test the Riksbank’s resolve to keep policy unchanged. With subdued GDP growth likely to weigh on underlying inflation this year, we... 19th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Is the SNB learning to live with a stronger franc? While we suspect that the SNB has intervened to slow the rise of the franc in recent weeks, it has not prevented it from reaching a multi-year high against the euro. At the margin, an increased... 18th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italy at risk of falling into recession, again After Italy’s economy shrank at the end of last year, it looks set to continue to struggle in 2020. In fact, there is a clear risk that it falls back into recession for the fourth time since 2008. 18th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update A primer on Irish reunification The recent election result in Ireland has made the prospect of reunification slightly less remote. In this Update, we answer four political questions and four economic questions about what it might... 17th February 2020 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB on hold until later this year The recent economic data have continued to be weak, and ECB policymakers seem more united behind their current “unconventional” policy than they were last year. However, we see no chance of further... 14th February 2020 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Riksbank still in love with zero While the Riksbank left policy unchanged this week, we suspect that weak GDP growth and inflation will prompt it to ease policy soon. Next week’s data are likely to show that inflation fell in Sweden... 14th February 2020 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response German GDP, Euro-zone GDP (2nd est.) & Emp. (Q4) Given that the German economy stagnated in Q4 last year it will have come as a relief that GDP growth for the euro-zone as a whole was not revised down from +0.1% q/q. We think that Germany will... 14th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update German office rents to hold up despite boost to supply Softer office occupier demand is expected to weigh on German prime office rents this year. But we still think that rents can grow at a decent pace because, even though office supply is expected to... 14th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Coronavirus driving financial market moves The initial financial market reaction in Switzerland and the Nordics to the coronavirus followed the familiar pattern during times of uncertainty: the Swiss franc rose and Swiss bond yields tumbled on... 13th February 2020 · 10 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Dec.) The sharp fall in euro-zone industrial production in December came as no surprise after the very weak national data already published. The timelier surveys suggest that industry will continue to... 12th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank happy to sit on the fence, for now This morning’s decision by the Riksbank to leave its repo rate on hold at zero percent was never in doubt. While policymakers appear happy to stay in wait-and-see mode for the time being, we suspect... 12th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway, Switz. & Denmark Consumer Prices (Jan.) The unexpected jump in underlying inflation in Norway lends support to our view that the Norges Bank is more likely to hike than to cut interest rates next. Meanwhile, the continued absence of price... 10th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Soft patch for Norwegian GDP set to be short lived Q4 GDP data from Norway confirmed that the mainland economy lost momentum late last year, but we think that it is only a matter of time before activity regains momentum. Next week, the Riksbank is all... 7th February 2020 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly GDP growth likely to remain weak in Q1 This week brought more disappointing data for the euro-zone, and we now expect data released next week to show that the euro-zone economy failed to grow at all in Q4 while German GDP contracted. While... 7th February 2020 · 6 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Dec.) The 3.5% slump in industrial production in December flies in the face of the widely-held view that Germany’s manufacturing sector was on the mend at the end of last year. And even before the... 7th February 2020 · 2 mins read
