Europe Economics Focus Euro-zone fiscal policy less effective than it once was Hopes for a substantial boost to economic growth in the euro-zone from fiscal policy in the next year or two are likely to be disappointed. It seems likely that any fiscal stimulus will be very small... 6th February 2020 · 15 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Euro-zone property investment to hold up in 2020 The latest data revealed that commercial property investment in the euro-zone held steady at a record high level. And with favourable relative pricing and capital readily available, we think that... 6th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Coronavirus a downside risk to already weak growth The euro-zone economy ended 2019 on a weak note and the outlook for early 2020 remains gloomy. Euro-zone GDP slowed from 0.3% q/q in Q3 to 0.1% q/q in Q4, with contractions in French and Italian GDP... 5th February 2020 · 11 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Dec.) & Final PMIs (Jan.) December’s euro-zone retail sales data suggest that household consumption growth slowed sharply in Q4. Meanwhile, the upward revision to January’s euro-zone Composite PMI implies that the... 5th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Easing cycle in Iceland has further to run This morning’s decision by the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) to resume its easing cycle came as no surprise to us following the recent fall in inflation. Given the potential for the coronavirus to... 5th February 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update How might coronavirus impact European high streets? A reduction in Chinese tourism as a result of the coronavirus will lead to lower spending on prime high streets, particularly in Rome, Paris and London. If tourism reduces on a global scale, the... 4th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update How might coronavirus impact European high streets? A reduction in Chinese tourism as a result of the coronavirus will lead to lower spending on prime high streets, particularly in Rome, Paris and London. If tourism reduces on a global scale, the... 4th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Greek pensions: a step in the wrong direction A decade after the start of its first bailout programme, the Greek government has still not reined in the cost of its pension system. And the government’s recent decision to raise pensions suggests... 3rd February 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) The mixed set of manufacturing PMIs from January adds to signs that conditions in the Swedish industrial sector have turned the corner but indicate that activity in Switzerland remains stuck in a rut. 3rd February 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Recovery from weak Q4 will be slow and gradual The raft of Q4 GDP data published this week were weaker than we or the consensus had expected. While the surveys for January show a small improvement in sentiment and activity, they are still... 31st January 2020 · 7 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Euro-zone property yield falls to continue We still think that the ECB will loosen policy this year, albeit by a little less than we had previously pencilled in. But with interest rates and bond yields still set to remain at historic lows... 31st January 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4) & HICP (Jan.) The Q4 GDP and January consumer prices data published today support our view that euro-zone growth and inflation will be weaker this year than most expect. This underlies our forecast that the ECB... 31st January 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Jan.), Unemp. (Dec.) Despite increasing in January, the euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator suggests that the economy is unlikely to have gained much momentum in Q1. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate, which fell to its... 30th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss KOF Economic Barometer (Jan.) The surge in the Swiss KOF Economic Barometer in January may yet prove to be a bit of a rogue reading. Nonetheless, it adds to signs from elsewhere in Europe that conditions for industrial firms have... 30th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Coronavirus likely to have small effect on EZ economy As long as the number of coronavirus cases remains low in Europe and contained elsewhere in the world, the impact of the virus on euro-zone GDP is likely to be small and temporary. It would need to be... 29th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Official growth forecasts still too optimistic 24th January 2020 · 9 mins read
