Europe Economics Update ECB’s new strategy consistent with looser for longer The details of the monetary strategy review were slightly less radical than had been suggested in parts of the financial media. But the changes announced today still amount to a historic shift away... 8th July 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update CEE office occupier activity past the worst Despite poor employment prospects, we are cautiously optimistic on the outlook for CEE leasing activity as the economic recovery gets underway. However, large supply pipelines mean that improving... 8th July 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Jun.) Activity and house prices were extremely strong again in June according to the RICS survey, although there was a distinct softening in the more forward-looking balances. As supply remains limited, we... 8th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Jun.) The further rise in Russian inflation to a stronger-than-expected 6.5% y/y in June means the central bank (CBR) is likely to up the pace of tightening when it meets in a couple of weeks. A 75bp hike... 7th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Activity taking off as hospitality reopens The economy has continued to rebound strongly as governments have lifted almost all restrictions on retail and restaurants and eased rules on foreign travel. Restaurant bookings are back above pre... 7th July 2021 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s inflation risks mount, CBRT to delay rate cuts Turkish inflation hit a two-year high in June and recent domestic energy price hikes will cause it to rise even further over the next couple of months. High inflation and signs of a quick recovery... 7th July 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (May) The small decline in German industrial production in May, which left it well below its pre-pandemic level, was due to another big fall in vehicle production. The problems in that, admittedly important... 7th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (May) Euro-zone retail sales rose back above their pre-pandemic level in May. And as Covid restrictions continue to be lifted, spending in the services sector is recovering very rapidly, which will provide... 6th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Has Athens been pushed off track by COVID-19? After gaining ground since 2018, the recovery in Athens’ prime property values has stalled. However, we think that the catch up with the euro-zone will continue, albeit at a slower pace than in recent... 6th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update BoI withdraws support, but no sign of tightening Israel’s strong economic recovery prompted the central bank to phase out one of its emergency support programmes at today’s meeting and Governor Yaron’s comments suggest that the next step towards... 5th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (June) The PMIs point to the euro-zone economy recovering strongly in June and provide evidence that price pressures are now spilling over into the services sector, even in the periphery. Nevertheless, we... 5th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Jun.) The fresh rise in Turkey’s headline inflation rate to 17.5% y/y in June, coupled with signs of a strong rebound in activity after May’s three-week lockdown, means that an interest rate cut in the next... 5th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey dollarisation, Ukraine-IMF, Russia & Poland rates Turkey’s central bank took steps this week to tackle deposit dollarisation in the banking sector, although these efforts will fail to make headway in the absence of a stronger commitment to rein in... 2nd July 2021 · 11 mins read
UK Economics No need to fear as furlough enters final furlong We think that concerns about the winding up of the furlough scheme are overdone for two reasons. First, at the end of May only 2.3m people were on furlough and half of them were working at least some... 2nd July 2021 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Surveys overstating peak price pressures At face value the business surveys published this week suggest that euro-zone inflation may soon rise to around 4%. However, we think it is unlikely to get as high as this and, even if it does, will... 2nd July 2021 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Löfven exits the stage (not pursued by a bear) The resignation of Prime Minister Stefan Löfven in Sweden has added to the period of political uncertainty in Sweden. That said, the other leading political actors would probably struggle to pass... 2nd July 2021 · 5 mins read
