Europe Economics Update What will a M5S-PD government mean for Italy? The formation of a coalition between the Five Star Movement and the Democratic Party reduces the risk of a renewed clash with the EU over fiscal policy, but it does not dramatically alter the economic... 4th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Greek debt sustainable but will remain “junk” Under any plausible growth scenario Greece’s credit rating is likely to remain well below investment grade over the coming years. Among other things, this means that Greek bonds will not be included... 4th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Jul.) & Final PMIs (Aug.) The small upward revision to August’s euro-zone PMI leaves it still pointing to slow GDP growth at the start of H2. And the fall in retail sales in July suggests that consumption started Q3 on weak... 4th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Aug.) The manufacturing PMIs from August indicate that the Swiss industrial sector is still feeling the pinch from the deep downturn in its German counterpart and the stronger franc, and add to the evidence... 2nd September 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Has the market done the ECB’s job for it? More policy loosening is on the way. But the case for the ECB to re-launch its public sector purchase programme is increasingly difficult to make given the recent rally in bonds. Meanwhile, we are... 30th August 2019 · 7 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Aug.) & Unemployment (Jul.) With headline and core inflation unchanged in August, at 1.0% and 0.9% respectively, and unemployment also unchanged at 7.5% in July, the scene is set for the ECB to loosen policy further. 30th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Finland & Denmark GDP (Q2), Swiss KOF (Aug.) Although today’s release of GDP data for Finland and Denmark shows that both economies grew solidly in Q2, we suspect that quarterly growth will slow in both in the coming quarters. Meanwhile, the... 30th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway’s GDP (Q2) This morning’s release of Q2 GDP data from Norway confirms that the economy remains a bright spot in the Nordics. But given that oil prices are now in line with our end-year forecast of $60pb, we... 29th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Germany now more vulnerable to no-deal Brexit Germany could have taken the UK’s departure from the EU in its stride a couple of years ago but it will be hit quite badly if a no-deal Brexit occurs in two months’ time. 28th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Prime office yields still obeying Newton’s First Law Plummeting bond yields in 2019 have dramatically improved property valuations, supporting the outlook for property prices. Indeed, we now think that euro-zone prime office yields can extend their... 28th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Falling bond yields buoy property valuations A second consecutive quarter of sharp falls in bond yields has driven improved valuations in 90 of the 93 markets that we cover. As a result, less than a third of all markets look overvalued, the... 23rd August 2019 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB preparing for action and perhaps a new target The account of the ECB Governing Council’s July meeting, published this week, confirmed that policymakers are planning to loosen policy in September. Meanwhile, the flash PMIs for August suggested... 23rd August 2019 · 8 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Aug.) The trivial increase in the euro-zone Composite PMI in August still leaves it consistent with feeble GDP growth this quarter and won’t put the ECB off easing policy next month. 22nd August 2019 · 2 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Economic slowdown feeding into slower rental growth Slower growth in both developed and emerging economies has started to filter through into property occupier markets, with office demand generally lower than a year ago and fewer cities registering... 19th August 2019 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly What are yield curves telling us in the euro-zone? The steepness of the yield curve in Germany has historically been a poor leading indicator of recessions. But that is cold comfort given the contraction in the economy in Q2 and the further weakness... 16th August 2019 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly More bad Swedish data; Norges Bank to hold rates The Norges Bank is likely to leave its key policy rate unchanged next Thursday but we expect it to leave the door open for a rate hike in September. More generally, though, the case for the Bank... 9th August 2019 · 5 mins read
