Europe Economics Update Germany to avoid industrial recession We now think German industry will continue to grow in the coming months as lower gas prices, easing supply shortages and high backlogs of orders support production. 20th January 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Domestic inflation is proving persistent CPI inflation is falling, but domestic inflationary pressures are proving persistent as the labour market remains tight and wage growth remains strong. Combined with a more resilient economy than the... 20th January 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Recession postponed or even cancelled We suspect that the resilience of the economy in late-2022 was due to the combination of lower energy prices, increased government support and easing supply problems in industry, while the drag from... 20th January 2023 · 8 mins read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Dec.) The 1.0% m/m fall in retail sales volumes in December was much worse than both we and the consensus (+0.5% m/m) had expected. That meant sales volumes fell 1.3% q/q in Q4 and were a disappointing 5.4%... 20th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB account suggests two more 50bp hikes likely The account of the December meeting, along with data released since then and recent comments from policymakers, suggest the ECB will raise its deposit rate from 2% to 3% by March rather than May as we... 19th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Jan.) 19th January 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Credit Conditions Survey (Q4 2022) The Q4 2022 Credit Conditions Survey shows that while lenders tightened lending criteria in the aftermath of the “mini” budget, the main constraint on lending volumes was a collapse in demand due to... 19th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Rapid Response Norges Bank Policy Announcement (January 2023) 19th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (December) The euro-zone has probably passed peak inflation as sharp declines in food and energy inflation are set to drag down the headline rate. But December’s final HICP data showed that underlying inflation... 18th January 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update REIT pricing points to further fall in capital values Movements in REIT pricing provide a good indication of where property capital values are heading. And the latest data are consistent with our expectation that all-property values will see a peak-to... 18th January 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) The small drop in CPI inflation from 10.7% in November to 10.5% in December (consensus forecast 10.5%) and the unchanged core rate of 6.3% (consensus 6.2%) suggest the inflation battle is not yet won... 18th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Long Run Update Pouring cold water on the “petroyuan” The process of “global fracturing” that we outlined in our annual Spotlight series last year will remain the dominant macro theme for the next decade. But speculation that it will result in the rise... 17th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Office downturn underway Office markets started to lose momentum at the end of last year and the expected weakness in employment this year suggests the slowdown will continue. That said, we think prime rents will avoid falls... 17th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey & Final HICP (Jan./Dec.) Economic sentiment in Germany improved further at the start of 2023 adding to the signs that the economy will hold up better than we feared. But with underlying price pressures still rising, tight... 17th January 2023 · 2 mins read
